Underdog Predict

What it is

Underdog Predict is the event-contract product inside the Underdog app: contracts priced between $0 and $1 that pay $1 if a sports outcome happens and nothing if it does not, traded against other participants and cash-settled. Underdog's fantasy pick'em games share the app and the login, and are a different product under state fantasy rules; they are outside this catalogue.

The app routes to more than one exchange, and one of them is Underdog's own. Underdog's market-data site says it "routes prediction-market trades across multiple DCMs, including UDX". Underdog's disclaimers page, as read on 3 October 2026, names three paths:

• UDX — Underdog's own exchange and clearinghouse. Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc. was designated a contract market by the CFTC on 5 September 2025, and Aristotle Exchange DCO, Inc. registered as a clearing organisation the same day, "permitted to clear fully collateralized positions in swaps". Underdog announced the purchase of both on 9 March 2026 and launched trading on its own exchange in the app on 18 July 2026. Both entities changed their legal names on 31 August 2026, to Underdog Exchange DCM, Inc. and Underdog Clearinghouse, Inc., per the exchange's own self-certification of 17 September 2026.
• Kalshi, through UDM, LLC, doing business as Underdog Predict. UDM registered with the CFTC as a futures commission merchant and became an NFA member on 9 January 2026, after applying in April 2025. Its CFTC 1.55(k) disclosure, with information as of 8 June 2026, describes it as a clearing FCM and a member of Kalshi Klear, LLC, holding no other exchange or clearing memberships.
• Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, with Underdog as technology service provider. This was the first arrangement: on 2 September 2025 Underdog and CDNA announced sports event contracts in the Underdog app, "powered by Underdog's technology". The disclaimers still list it; UDM's 1.55(k) says its own FCM member agreement with CDNA "is not operational at this time".

Underdog's launch release of 18 July 2026 sums up the history in one sentence — "Before the launch of its own exchange today, Underdog offered access to prediction markets through other exchanges, including Crypto.com and Kalshi" — and calls the FCM, DCM and DCO together "the complete prediction market license stack".

UDX is a direct-access exchange, not a broker's back end. Its rulebook (version 1.3, effective 30 July 2026) says only Participants have trading privileges and that "no registered Futures Commission Merchant, registered Introducing Broker, or other intermediary may submit trades in Contracts for execution on behalf of its customers". A UDX customer signs the exchange's Participant Agreement with the DCM and the DCO directly, posts the full cost of the position up front, and is a member of the exchange rather than a customer of the FCM. That is why the app comes with two sets of legal documents.

How it differs from pick'em. A pick'em entry is a contest against Underdog's published lines, under state fantasy law. Here you buy or sell a contract on an order book, against other participants, can sell before the event ends, pay a fee per contract, and the venue answers to the CFTC. UDX's contract terms classify its contracts as swaps.

IG Group announced a proposed acquisition of Underdog Sports Holdings, Inc. on 30 July 2026; Underdog's own news page carries the announcement. It does not change anything on this card yet.

Availability

US only, 18+, and the state list is not published in text. UDX's rulebook requires a natural person to be at least 18 and to have reached the age of majority where they live. Underdog's disclaimers add "Must be a U.S. resident" for UDM's FCM route and "Must be 18+ and present in a state where Underdog Predict operates" for the exchange routes. Underdog's help-centre page on the subject could not be read; it returned a block page to every automated request. No state list is printed here for that reason — check the app before relying on a single state.

Opening a UDM account triggers the standard US customer-identification check: name, residential address, date of birth and Social Security or taxpayer identification number, with government-issued photo ID when asked.

UDM's risk disclosure warns that if courts decide certain states may restrict sports event contracts, open positions for customers in those states "may become untradeable" or be liquidated early. The UDX site says its material is not directed at anyone outside the United States.

Pricing

Two fee schedules, depending on which exchange a market sits on.

UDX markets. The UDX Fee Schedule effective 11 September 2026 charges:

• Taker — Round(0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price)), price in dollars;
• Maker — Round(0.0175 × contracts × price × (1 − price)), only when a resting order executes; cancelling costs nothing;
• No maker fee on the multi-leg ENTITYCOMBO product ("Will all of <components> occur?").

Rounding is to the nearest cent, half to even, per trade. At 50¢ that is 1.75¢ a contract for a taker and 0.4375¢ for a maker — the coefficients and shape of Kalshi's general schedule. On one contract the rounding dominates: a single taker contract at 50¢ pays 2¢, and one at 1¢ or 99¢ rounds to nothing.

An earlier version of the UDX schedule was harsher on resting orders: makers paid the same 0.07 coefficient as takers, rounded up to the next cent, with a monthly rebate of the rounding excess only once it passed $10.

UDX's rulebook bars FCMs from submitting orders, so UDM's commission cannot sit on a UDX trade.

Kalshi-routed markets. UDM's fee schedule (effective 12 February 2026) charges $0.01 a contract per side, opening and closing, with no minimum, and says exchange fees and regulatory fees are passed through on top. Kalshi's exchange fee uses the same 0.07 taker formula, so a mid-priced taker contract on this route costs about a cent more than on UDX.

Why the fee fields read 2.75% and 1%. They are the Kalshi route at 50¢, the dearer of the two quoted routes, because the app decides which exchange a market goes to and the reader does not; on a UDX-listed market the same trade costs 1.75% and 0.4375%. A round trip pays the fee twice; holding to settlement pays it once. No deposit or withdrawal fee appears in either schedule; none was checked further.

Money moves through the fantasy account. UDM's Futures Account Agreement (version 2.0, effective 11 August 2026) requires a "Linked Underdog Account" with Underdog Sports, LLC, doing business as Underdog Fantasy. The FCM account can only be funded from it, withdrawals start from it, and by default excess cash is swept back into it at the end of the trading day. Funds there are not segregated customer funds under CFTC rules and are not SIPC- or FDIC-insured; the sweep can be switched off by asking support. The same agreement asks you to keep a net liquidating balance of $1,000 across the two accounts, below which UDM may restrict the account to closing trades.

Markets & resolution

Sports only on UDX. The exchange's site describes "pre-game, in-game, and multi-event contract structures". Its product filings, all dated July to September 2026, cover game winners, spreads, totals, scores, titles and awards across US leagues, college sports, tennis, golf, motorsport, MMA, a long list of football (soccer) leagues and esports such as Valorant and Rainbow Six. No political, economic or crypto contract appears among them.

Settlement on UDX is by contract terms, not by Underdog's judgement in the moment:

• Each contract names its Underlying and a Source Agency hierarchy. An NFL point-differential contract filed on 21 September 2026 lists the NFL first, then ESPN, CBS Sports, Fox Sports, the Associated Press, The Wall Street Journal and the official broadcaster, and ignores revisions made after expiration.
• The ENTITYCOMBO contract combines two to ten already-listed outcomes and resolves Yes only if every one occurs; it introduces no settlement source of its own.
• Trading runs 24/7 for most markets, with holiday and maintenance changes posted on the exchange's notices page. Besides the order book, the rulebook provides a request-for-quote route in which quoters must hold enough collateral to fill what they quote.

On Kalshi-routed markets the contract, its source and any dispute run under Kalshi's rulebook. Every position, on either route, is fully collateralised and cash-settled in US dollars.

Integrations

None for a trader. There is no public trading API for Underdog Predict accounts in any of the documents read; the app and the website are the way in. UDX runs a market-maker programme for participants who quote on the book.

Underdog does publish data. Its market-data site shows aggregated notional volume and trade counts across every exchange it routes to since its prediction-market launch in August 2025, with a JSON download, and daily UDX-only market and trade reports in the format the CFTC requires.

Limitations

• Which exchange a market sits on is not obvious. The same app shows UDX, Kalshi and possibly Crypto.com markets; fees, rules and settlement procedures differ by route, and only the rules link on a market says which applies.
• Two sets of legal relationships. A UDX trade makes you a participant of Underdog's exchange; a Kalshi trade makes you a customer of Underdog's FCM. Different agreements, fee schedules and customer protections apply.
• Cash parks outside CFTC protection. The default end-of-day sweep moves excess cash out of the segregated FCM account into the fantasy account, where CFTC customer-protection rules do not apply.
• A $1,000 balance requirement sits in UDM's account agreement, with closing-only trading below it.
• The documents lag the rename. UDX's site footer, fee schedule and rulebook still read "Aristotle Exchange DCM, Inc."; the CFTC's DCM list still shows that name, while its DCO page already reads Underdog Clearinghouse, Inc.
• Sports only, and the state list is not published in a form that could be read for this card.
• No API, no data export from the account.
• Nobody here has funded an account. Everything above is read from Underdog's disclaimers page, UDX's rulebook, fee schedules, contract filings and Participant Agreement, UDM's fee schedule, Futures Account Agreement, risk disclosure and 1.55(k) disclosure, Underdog's press releases, NFA's register and the CFTC's records, on 3 October 2026.

Alternatives

Kalshi is the exchange behind Underdog's other route, joined directly and without the UDM commission. Crypto.com offers the CDNA markets in its own app. DraftKings Predictions is the nearest structure: a sports operator's FCM routing partly onto an exchange the same group bought. PrizePicks Predict is the other fantasy operator brokering event contracts. Novig and ProphetX are sports-only exchanges joined directly, and Polymarket US is a direct exchange with a wider market list.