Gemini Predictions

What it is

Event contracts inside the Gemini crypto exchange, under the name Gemini Predictions. Each contract is a yes-or-no proposition that pays $1.00 to the winning side and $0.00 to the losing side, trades between those two prices on a limit order book, and is paid for out of the USD balance in an ordinary Gemini spot account.

Unlike most of the apps in this category, Gemini is its own exchange. The contracts are listed on Gemini Titan, LLC, a Delaware company headquartered in New York and a wholly-owned subsidiary of Gemini Space Station, Inc. The CFTC's register lists Gemini Titan as a designated contract market with a designation date of 10 December 2025, and the order of designation records that it will run an anonymous electronic central limit order book. The register also shows how long that took: Gemini Titan's first exhibits were filed in August 2020 and later withdrawn, and the order cites application submissions dated 31 December 2024 through 9 December 2025. Gemini's FY2025 10-K, filed on 31 March 2026, says the product went live in December 2025.

Clearing is in the family too, and that is newer than the exchange. The order of designation requires every contract to be cleared on a fully collateralised basis by a CFTC-registered derivatives clearing organization without naming one, and the Gemini Titan rulebook (last updated 21 August 2026) defines "Clearing House" as whichever registered clearing organization Gemini designates. The CFTC's list of clearing organizations shows Gemini Olympus, LLC registered on 29 April 2026, permitted to clear fully collateralised futures, options on futures and swaps, and Gemini's Q2 2026 10-Q, filed on 13 August 2026, says Gemini Predictions "is operated through Gemini Titan" and "Gemini Olympus". So, as of the 10-Q, one group owns the app, the exchange and the clearing house, which is the Kalshi and ForecastEx shape rather than the Robinhood or Coinbase one. Which clearing house carried the contracts between the December 2025 launch and Gemini Olympus's registration could not be established from a primary source, and this card does not name one.

You are a member of the exchange, not a broker's customer. The rulebook admits natural persons as Self-Clearing Members, each holding one account that the clearing house carries in their own name. It also provides for FCM and introducing-broker members, and the fee schedule warns that anyone reaching Gemini Predictions through an FCM may pay that FCM's fees on top. No list of intermediary members was found on Gemini's site, so this card does not say any broker routes here.

The business is still small next to the venues it competes with. The Q2 2026 10-Q reports prediction-markets revenue of $524,000 for the quarter and $968,000 for the first half of 2026.

Availability

US only. Gemini's help centre article on Gemini Predictions, last updated on 21 January 2026, states that the product "is available to US users only", that spot accounts can trade it, and that trading runs 24/7. The FY2025 10-K adds that it is available only "in jurisdictions and to users that meet applicable eligibility requirements" without publishing those requirements. No list of excluded US states was found on Gemini's site, its help centre or its fee and legal pages on 4 October 2026. The rulebook makes Gemini Titan the US agent for service of process for members located outside the United States, but Gemini's own customer-facing statement is the US restriction, and that is what this card records.

Age is set by your state, not by Gemini. Rule 3.1 requires a natural-person applicant to certify that they have reached the age of majority in their state of residence. An account goes through Gemini's ordinary identity verification, and the applicant must not be on OFAC's sanctions list.

One state is suing over the sports contracts. On 21 April 2026 the New York Attorney General filed a petition against Gemini Titan in New York state court, alleging that offering sports contracts to New Yorkers through Gemini Predictions required a state licence Gemini Titan does not hold, and seeking an injunction, restitution and penalties. Gemini Titan removed the case to the Southern District of New York the next day, and the Attorney General moved to send it back on 1 May 2026; the 10-Q filed on 13 August 2026 reports it still at that stage. The same filing notes Connecticut's December 2025 cease-and-desist orders against several platforms over sports event contracts, without saying whether Gemini received one. Nothing Gemini publishes shows New York or Connecticut residents being blocked, but this is the part of the card most likely to change by court order.

Pricing

The fee schedule changed on 18 March 2026, and which one applies depends on when the contract was listed, not when you trade it.

Contracts listed on or after 18 March 2026 pay a fee on the familiar price × (1 − price) curve:

• Taker: 0.07 × contracts × price × (1 − price) — up to 1.75¢ a contract, at 50¢, falling to 0.63¢ at 10¢ or 90¢;
• Maker: 0.0175 × contracts × price × (1 − price) — up to 0.4375¢ a contract, at 50¢, charged only when a resting order fills. Cancelling is free.

A partly filled order pays the taker rate on the part that matched immediately and the maker rate on the rest. Fees are rounded up to the next cent per fill, so a single contract at 50¢ costs 2¢ to take, not 1.75¢. The schedule's own examples: 100 contracts taken at 40¢ cost $1.68, and 100 contracts made at 50¢ cost $0.44.

Contracts listed before 18 March 2026 stay on the older schedule, which charged rate × min(price, 1 − price) per contract at 0.05 for takers and 0.01 for makers — 2.5¢ and 0.5¢ a contract at 50¢. A long-dated market opened in early 2026 can therefore cost more to trade than a newer one beside it.

There is no settlement fee and no membership fee. Deposits and withdrawals go through the rest of the Gemini platform and carry whatever that rail's transfer fee is, on a separate schedule. Gemini also runs a maker rebate programme, liquidity and taker reward pages, and time-limited promotions paying "promo cash" that can only be spent on prediction orders and cannot be withdrawn; promotions exclude anyone trading through an FCM or IB member.

Markets & resolution

Sports dominate the listing. Of the open markets served on Gemini's prediction-markets page on 4 October 2026, nearly nine in ten were sports — NFL and college football moneylines down to single quarters, player props, golf, tennis and MLB — with the rest split across crypto prices, politics, business, economics, commodities (gold and silver), culture and tech. Gemini's own 10-K describes the range as "crypto price movements to elections, sports, and cultural events". BTC contracts run as short as five minutes.

Every event names a third-party data agency on its details page. In the market data served on 4 October 2026, sports resolved against Statscore and Sportradar feeds, crypto prices against Lukka reference rates, and gold and silver against Kaiko indices. When a source is delayed, disputed or unclear, the help centre says Gemini will hold the contract unresolved until reliable information is available, "in accordance with the Gemini Titan Rulebook, in Gemini's sole discretion". Settlement and expiration-extension notices are published individually on the Gemini Titan notices page.

Settlement is in US dollars to the Gemini account balance; orders are limit orders only, and a position can be sold before the event's close time or held to resolution.

Integrations

Gemini's developer platform has a prediction-markets section with REST and WebSocket APIs. Market data — events, contracts and the instrumentSymbol used to trade them — needs no API key. Trading needs an account-scoped key with time-based nonces, and before the first order the account must have accepted the current prediction-market terms, which the API lets you check and accept. Subaccounts work with prediction markets, so separate strategies can run on separate balances. Gemini has a general sandbox environment, but its docs tell you to confirm a product is supported there before testing, and this card does not claim prediction markets are.

No official Python package for prediction markets was checked, and there is no CSV export claim here.

Limitations

• US only, and Gemini publishes no list of excluded states, so the New York action is the thing to watch.
• Listing date decides the fee. Two fee schedules are live at once, and the older one costs more at the midpoint.
• Small by the venue's own numbers. Half a year of prediction revenue under $1 million, per the Q2 2026 10-Q, is a small fraction of what the largest venues report, so check the depth of a book before sizing an order in anything but the headline games.
• Gemini runs the exchange, the clearing house and the app. That removes a broker from the chain, and it also means resolution disputes go to the same group that listed the contract, under a rulebook that gives it sole discretion over delayed outcomes.
• No documented tax forms. The help centre says only that Gemini does not provide tax advice.

Alternatives

Kalshi is the same shape — a designated contract market with its own clearing house and direct retail membership — with a far deeper listing and a published API of longer standing. ForecastEx also lists and clears its own contracts but has no sports and no direct accounts. If you already hold a crypto account elsewhere, Coinbase's prediction markets and Crypto.com's are the comparable products from other exchanges; Coinbase's, by contrast, is a broker routing to Kalshi rather than its own venue.