Parity (PredictParity)

What it is

A web trading terminal that sits in front of three venues — Polymarket, Kalshi and Polymarket US — and routes each order to the venue the market lives on. It is published by Predict Parity, LLC under the brand Parity, at predictparity.com; the product calls itself Parity everywhere, and "PredictParity" is the domain and the social handle.

Described from outside as an aggregator, it is closer to a brokerless front end with an analytics layer bolted on. The terms say so in their own words: the service provides aggregated market data and "tools for facilitating your connections" to third-party platforms, and Parity "does not execute, clear, or settle any trades." Every fill happens on the venue.

What it adds on top of the three venues' own apps:

• One catalogue and one portfolio. Markets from all three in one listing with a venue filter, and a Portfolio view that merges positions, resting orders, fills and a profit breakdown by category across every venue you have linked.
• Multiview. Several markets from any venue in columns on one screen, each with a live book and an optional click-to-stage price ladder. Desktop only; the docs say the entry is hidden on phones.
• Advanced orders — stop loss and take profit (with a one-cancels-other bracket), TWAP, iceberg, and "Market Eye", which waits for the book to come to a level and re-arms until a target size is filled. They run server-side after you close the tab. The docs label the whole set a beta that "may not be enabled on your account yet".
• Wallet analytics. Trader leaderboards, a tracker for wallets you add by name or address, their fills plotted on the price chart, net flows, top holders, and a per-trade breakdown of which maker wallets filled a taker.
• Alerts for fills, resolutions, price moves and tracked traders, in the app or pushed to Discord or Telegram.

The analytics half is why the card also sits under analytics dashboards. On 30 September 2026 the Traders leaderboard — PnL, volume, win rate and positions per wallet, filterable by venue — and the Data page rendered without an account, and a reader can use them without ever placing an order. The Data page carries a cross-venue volume total, a Polymarket wallet-concentration report and a Polymarket "accuracy" table by category and horizon whose method the page does not state. Activity and Trackers sent a signed-out visitor back to the front page.

Availability

The terms exclude US persons, and the product integrates two US venues. The terms of use, last modified 21 May 2026, say use of the service "for participation in prediction markets is not permitted" by anyone who resides or is located in a restricted jurisdiction, naming the United States (all states and territories), China, Singapore, Cuba, Iran, North Korea, Syria, Russia, the Crimea region and any jurisdiction sanctioned by the US, UK, EU or UN. VPNs to get around it are prohibited. us_persons on this card is false because those are the product's own terms, not a venue's. Outside the US the venues narrow it further: Polymarket US serves only the US, and both Polymarket and Kalshi bar the United Kingdom and Australia, while Kalshi bars Canada and Polymarket four of its provinces. The jurisdictions above are what is left when Parity's own list is taken out of the two venues' combined reach.

What the software enforces is narrower. The client code served on 30 September 2026 marks only Polymarket (international) as geo-restricted: before enabling a buy it asks Polymarket's own geoblock endpoint whether your connection is blocked, falling back to a flag the server writes into the page. A blocked visitor can still sell a Polymarket position but not buy one. Kalshi and Polymarket US carry no such check in the client, so on those two the gate that actually applies is each venue's own onboarding — both ask for identity verification before they will hold your money.

Parity itself asks for no identity check. Signup is an email one-time code, Google or a Phantom wallet, handled by Privy.

Pricing

Free today, with a fee written down and switched off. The fee schedule, headed "Updated August 14th, 2026", says Parity "is not charging its own direct fees for the time being", and that there is no settlement fee, no membership fee and no Parity charge on deposits or withdrawals.

The terms of use, dated three months earlier, describe what the fee would be: a builder fee on the notional of each filled order routed through the service, 1% for takers and 0.5% for makers, reduced by a cashback that the terms say brings the effective rate towards zero near prices of 0 or 1 and peaks at the stated rate at 0.50. The referral programme, updated 24 June 2026, already pays 30%, 3% and 2% of Parity's net fee across three levels of referrals — of a fee that is not being charged. pricing.model is free and the fee fields are null because that is what the vendor's newest document says you pay today; the builder-fee plumbing is present in the client's venue configuration, so treat the zero as a promotional state rather than a price.

What you do pay is the venues'. Each venue's own schedule applies, and the trade panel shows an estimated fee before you confirm. Polymarket charges on its rate model; Kalshi and Polymarket US charge only when an order crosses the book, so a resting limit order is free on those two. Split, merge and withdrawals on the Polymarket side pay Polygon gas, and deposits go through a third-party deposit provider whose fee is shown before you confirm.

Markets & resolution

Parity resolves nothing and lists nothing; resolution_source is null. A Kalshi contract resolves under Kalshi's rulebook, a Polymarket market through the UMA optimistic oracle, and a Polymarket US contract under its own rules — the venue cards set out each mechanism. The catalogue in practice is whatever the three list: on 30 September 2026 the home page's trending set was Fed decisions, Nasdaq-100 intraday levels, US Senate races, the Brazilian and Israeli elections and Iran, with tags for politics, sports, esports and AI models.

Where it pairs a question across venues, it pairs by name. The signed-out front page on 30 September 2026 showed the October Fed "no change" question with one order-book ladder in three columns — POLY, PM US and KALSHI — so the three venues' depth at each price sat side by side. The docs do not describe this view. The client code calls it a multibook and fills its columns with "twins": markets the server groups with this one, or failing that, active markets on another venue whose short display name is the same string after lowercasing, found by searching the event title. It also ships a hand-written list of five Kalshi–Polymarket pairs for the September 2026 FOMC meeting.

A match on the name is not a match on the contract. The pair on that front page is a case in point: Parity's own market pages gave the Kalshi market an end date of 28 October 2026 and the Polymarket one 29 October. Elsewhere on the same front page's trending list, the two Fed markets appeared as two unrelated cards. Deciding whether two contracts are one question — rule text, source, close time, fallback — is still your work; the guide to why one contract costs two prices and the how-to on matching a question across venues are what that work consists of.

A position is held at the venue it was opened on. Portfolio shows them together, but the docs say plainly that they settle separately and the balances are not interchangeable: dollars at Kalshi and Polymarket US, a stablecoin in a Polygon wallet for Polymarket.

The venues are not equal inside Parity either. Top holders and top traders exist for Polymarket; Kalshi gets holders only, and Polymarket US neither. Split and merge are Polymarket-only, and the iceberg order on Polymarket US sits behind its own feature flag in the client.

Integrations

None for developers. There is no published API, SDK, WebSocket or MCP server, and no export in the docs. The client code contains an API-key management screen behind a feature flag, which is not the same as a published API.

How you connect each venue is the part that matters:

• Polymarket — signup provisions an embedded wallet through Privy, which the terms name as HORKOS, INC. d/b/a Privy, and you deposit into it. Or you import an existing Polymarket wallet by pasting its private key, revealed through Magic for accounts created with Google or email; the docs say the key is uploaded to Privy and bound to your login.
• Kalshi — an API key ID plus the entire RSA private key file, pasted into Parity's settings.
• Polymarket US — a key ID and secret key from the Polymarket US developer page.

The docs say Kalshi and Polymarket US keys are encrypted at rest, used only to sign your orders, and that disconnecting in Parity does not revoke the key at the exchange — you delete it there too. The guide to where your key lives covers what handing a signing key to a hosted front end means.

Support runs through tickets on a Discord server; general enquiries go to the vendor's X account. The shipped client also carries configuration for two more venues, Pascal and Hyperliquid, behind feature flags. Neither is documented or shown in the venue filter.

Limitations

Its own documents disagree with each other, and with the product. The terms bar US persons while the product links Kalshi and Polymarket US accounts. The terms describe Kalshi as "accessed via Jupiter Protocol", while the linking guide has you paste a Kalshi API key. The terms price a builder fee the fee schedule says is not charged. And the privacy policy, also dated 21 May 2026, says Parity "does not receive or store full payment card numbers or private keys" — while the linking guide asks for the whole Kalshi RSA private key and describes "Parity's copy of the key". The terms and the privacy policy are both dated 21 May 2026 and the fee schedule 14 August; until the legal pages catch up with the docs, nobody can tell from the documents alone which description is the operative one.

A hosted service holds a key that can trade your Kalshi and Polymarket US accounts. It cannot withdraw — the app says it "cannot move money in or out of Kalshi" — but it can place orders, and that is enough to lose money through.

The smart-money views are Polymarket-only arithmetic over public wallets. Market Strength is the per-outcome share of holdings by "sharp traders", which the docs define as any wallet with over 10,000 USD of profit and 100,000 USD of volume. A wallet's past profit is not a forecast, a wallet that looks one-sided on Polymarket may be hedged on a venue whose accounts are not public, and on the Kalshi market page we opened nearly every trade in the tape read "Anonymous". The docs call the result "a signal worth paying attention to"; it is a count of who holds what.

The APY figure is conditional. Market pages print an "APY" beside the price. On the Kalshi October Fed market on 30 September 2026 it read 686.6% for YES at 65.5 cents with 28 days to close, which is the 52.7% gain if YES wins, annualised by simple multiplication. It is a return on one outcome, stated as if it were a yield.

Advanced orders are a beta, and they execute at market. Stop loss and take profit fire a market sell off the best bid, with no limit-price version; in a thin book the fill can be well past the trigger, and with no bid at all the exit expires unfilled. A sell TWAP is not capped to your position. Access to the whole set is rolled out gradually.

Its terms license the data for your own internal, non-commercial use, so nothing on the Data page or the Activity tape may be republished.

Nothing here has been run by us — no account opened, no venue linked, no order placed.

Alternatives

Polyrama is the nearest match — Polymarket and Kalshi on one screen, with signals and a backtester, but live orders on Polymarket only. Synthesis is a two-venue desk with Kalshi and Polymarket on one screen. For the wallet-tracking half without a trading account, Polysights and Polymarket Analytics cover Polymarket wallets.

If the job is pairing the same question across venues rather than trading it, Predictefy publishes cross-venue clusters and Adjacent publishes reference rates with the spread between their sources. For building your own client, PMXT puts several venues behind one interface.