Opinion

What it is

Opinion is a prediction-market exchange on BNB Chain, run at opinion.trade. Each market is a pair of outcome tokens trading on a central limit order book; positions are collateralised in a settlement token (the documentation names USDT, and the public API lists the same contract as the quote token on every activated market, 0x55d398326f99059fF775485246999027B3197955, read on 23 October 2026), and a correct position redeems for one unit of it. That contract reports itself as "Tether USD", but it is the Binance-pegged BSC-USD token rather than one Tether issues: Tether's own list of supported chains gives no USD₮ contract on BNB Smart Chain. What that means for a holder is set out in what backs an on-chain venue's dollar.

The operator in the Terms of Use, last updated 19 October 2025, is Superchillclub Limited, under the laws of Panama, with arbitration in Panama. The documentation and the app speak as "Opinion Labs" and as OPINION; the terms are the document that names the counterparty to your agreement.

The pitch is macro: the about page is built around trading a CPI print or a Fed decision directly instead of a proxy. What the book holds on any given day is wider than that. On 23 October 2026 the public API listed 172 activated markets, of which 95 carried a sports label and 39 an esports one, beside crypto, finance, politics, business and culture.

Self-custody runs through a connected wallet or a social login. Opinion pays the on-chain gas for matching and settling trades; you pay gas for low-frequency actions such as filing a dispute or claiming a reward.

Availability

Closed to the United States and to a list of others, by residence, location and citizenship. The Terms of Use bar trading by anyone "residing in, a citizen of, organized in or located in" the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, South Korea, the People's Republic of China, Taiwan and Hong Kong, as well as any comprehensively sanctioned jurisdiction (Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, and the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions are named). The citizenship test is the unusual part: a US citizen living abroad is barred as well.

A restricted person may still use the site's content features and may not touch the trading platform. VPN use to get round the restriction is prohibited, and the stated consequence is that the wallet is put into close-only mode.

There is no identity check at signup. The terms reserve the right to ask for information confirming you are not a restricted person and to cut access if it is not provided. You must be 18 or older. Read 2026-10-23.

The jurisdiction field above is coarse: Europe excludes France and Poland, Asia excludes six named markets as well as the sanctioned ones, and Canada excludes Ontario.

Pricing

The vendor's unit: a taker fee of 0% to 1% of the fill, on a curve that peaks at 50 cents. The formula on the fees page is topic_rate × price × (1 − price), applied to the notional (price × quantity) of each matched fill, then multiplied by any discounts. The maker-rebates page works its examples at a 4% base rate and spells out that it is not the percentage you pay: at a price of 50 cents the curve factor is 0.25, so the effective rate is 1% of what the fill costs, which is the top of the fees page's 0%-to-1% range.

Why the fee field reads 0.5 and not 1. The 1% is a share of the stake, not of the payout. Buying a share at 50 cents costs 50 cents, and 1% of that is 0.5 cents, which is 0.5% of the $1 the share pays. At 10 or 90 cents the same base rate charges 0.36% of the fill. Individual markets can carry a lower or zero topic_rate; the field holds the top of the published range.

Makers pay nothing and are paid. Resting orders are free, and under the Maker Rebates Program every filled maker order earns 50% of the curve fee the taker generated, calculated per fill and paid daily in the collateral token, with no sign-up. At 50 cents that is 0.25 cents a share, which is why the maker field is negative. The rebate is always calculated on the full curve fee, before the taker's discounts and never on the minimum fee.

The minimum fee is the number to plan against on small orders. Every taker order pays at least $0.25, charged on the first on-chain fill of that order. At 50 cents the curve fee only reaches $0.25 on a fill of $25, so on the $5 minimum order the floor is 5% of the stake. Discounts — a referral binding worth up to 10%, promotional discounts, and a VIP programme the docs still list as "coming soon" — multiply together and cannot take a fee below the floor.

The minimum order and the minimum withdrawal are both $5. No withdrawal fee is published beyond the gas you pay yourself. Fee pages read on 2026-10-23.

Markets & resolution

The resolution page is two sentences: the method is specified on each market page, and "at present, most markets are resolved through Opinion AI, which serves as the primary oracle mechanism". The welcome page describes Opinion AI as a decentralised multi-agent AI oracle that also helps write the rules for user-created markets. The public API carries a flag for it, and on 23 October 2026 it was set on 27 of the 172 activated markets, most of the rest being sports and esports fixtures. The rules text the API returns for those names a resolution source of its own, such as HLTV for a CS2 match.

Disputes are staked, single and first-come. When a result is proposed, a dispute window opens, typically two hours except on some asset-price markets. Any user may challenge it as wrong or too early by staking OPN, the greater of 1% of the market's open interest and 1,000 OPN, priced off Binance's OPN/USDT rate. Only one dispute is allowed per resolution. An accepted dispute returns the stake plus an equal reward, a rejected one forfeits it, and if the review window runs out the dispute succeeds automatically and the market can be resolved again. With no dispute the result finalises when the window closes.

Two documents point in different directions here. The documentation calls Opinion AI the primary oracle; the Terms of Use say the company "is not involved in nor responsible for the resolution of any Prediction Markets", while also reserving to the company the choice of oracle sources for each market and the right to suspend or cancel a market it cannot resolve.

Liquidity is uneven. On the same day the homepage's own figures showed a single esports market with about $2.5 million of 24-hour volume, while the three long-dated markets the API ranked highest had last traded between June and early September, and the day's new esports fixtures had empty books.

Integrations

Three published interfaces, one key for all of them:

• OpenAPI — REST market data: markets, latest price, order book, price history, quote tokens. Public endpoints need no key and are limited to 5 requests a second per IP; a key, created with a wallet signature, raises that to 15. It cannot place orders.
• WebSocket — live price, trade and book-change streams and market status events, with user channels for your own orders.
• CLOB SDKs in Python and TypeScript — the only documented route to placing, cancelling and managing orders from code, including split, merge and redeem, and a builder mode for apps that onboard their own users.

CCXT and PMXT both carry Opinion among their venues, and ArbBets and Predexon read its prices.

Limitations

• The citizenship clause. Barring citizens as well as residents removes US citizens abroad, which the location-based geoblocks of most offshore venues do not.
• A $0.25 floor per order. On small tickets the minimum, not the curve, sets the price.
• Resolution leans on the operator's own AI. The appeal path is a single staked dispute, and disputing needs OPN tokens in a wallet you control.
• Terms and documentation disagree on who resolves, and the terms are the governing document.
• No identity check is not the same as open access. The operator can demand information at any time and close or freeze an account in close-only mode.
• Thin books away from the busiest markets, read from the venue's own API and homepage.
• Nobody here has funded an account. Everything above is read from Opinion's documentation, Terms of Use and public API on 23 October 2026.

Alternatives

Polymarket is the larger on-chain order book with an external oracle, UMA, rather than an in-house one, and a geoblock based on physical location. Limitless and Myriad are the other offshore crypto-settled venues in this category; the head-to-head of offshore venues sets them side by side. A US reader needs a CFTC-regulated exchange such as Kalshi instead.