Hyperliquid Outcome Markets

What it is

HIP-4 is Hyperliquid's improvement proposal for outcome markets: "fully collateralized contracts that settle within a fixed range", added to HyperCore, the order-book layer of Hyperliquid's own blockchain. Each market is a pair of tokens, usually Yes and No; settlement converts Yes into a fraction of a USDC between 0 and 1 and No into the rest. The Yes and No books are merged, so buying Yes at p is the same order as selling No at 1 − p. There is no leverage and no liquidation, which is what separates these from the perpetuals the chain is known for.

The HIP-4 page describes the first mainnet market as a recurring daily binary on the BTC mark price, its specification example being a one-day contract expiring at 06:00 UTC on 3 May 2026, and says multi-outcome markets would follow in stages. The chain's own info endpoint, read on 23 October 2026, shows how far that has gone: 378 outcomes and 29 multi-outcome questions.

• Protocol-deployed recurring markets: daily binaries on BTC, ETH, SOL and HYPE, and a recurring three-bucket daily BTC price question.
• Deployer markets: the endpoint lists four deployer venues by code, three of them with live markets. They carry NBA, NFL and soccer games and seasons, esports, award winners, central bank rate decisions, IPO first-day market caps, and short-dated price binaries on Hyperliquid's own perpetuals, including equity-index, single-stock, gold and silver perps.

The interface at app.hyperliquid.xyz is published by Hyperliquid Corp., whose terms say it does not own, control or operate the chain itself and that the interface is not the only way to reach it.

Availability

The interface bars the US and Ontario, and outcome markets have a second, unpublished list. The Terms of Use, last updated 15 June 2026, define Restricted Persons as anyone residing in, located in, incorporated in or with a registered office in the United States or Ontario, anyone in a sanctioned territory, and citizens of sanctioned territories wherever they live. Section 1.7 then adds that outcome markets are not available to "Excluded Persons": anyone subject to the laws of "certain jurisdictions that we designate from time to time", or for whom access would require a licence nobody has obtained. Section 1.8 says the company may block the outcome-markets tab for them. That list is not published, so the jurisdiction field above records only what the terms bar outright and the Excluded list can narrow it without notice.

VPNs and false statements about residency or citizenship are prohibited. There is no identity check: an account is a wallet. The terms are governed by English law with LCIA arbitration in London. The chain itself is permissionless; the terms govern the interface, and other front ends bring their own. Read 2026-10-23.

Pricing

Hyperliquid has not published an outcome-market fee rate, and its own pages disagree about whether one is charged. That is why both fee fields on this card are blank rather than "None".

• The HIP-4 page says: "Fees are currently zero for outcome markets for initial testing."
• The Fees page has an outcome section that says the opposite in effect: outcome trading "only charges fees when closing or settling, not when opening outcome positions", minting pays nothing, burning can charge both sides, and outcome trading has no rebates — "users who would receive rebates for spot and perp trading pay zero fees on maker orders". It gives no rate.
• Public fills read from the chain's info endpoint on 23 October 2026 show opening buys at zero and sells, merges and settlements charged. On accounts at the base fee tier the charge matched each account's own spot rate from the userFees endpoint: 0.0672% of the fill for a taker, which is the 0.07% base spot rate less a 4% referral discount, and 0.0384% for a resting sell; some fills were charged twice the account's rate, and a front end's builder fee adds to others. No Hyperliquid page says outcomes use the spot schedule, so this card does not turn the observation into a fee.

The outcome metadata also carries a deployerFeeScale of 1.0 on every market of two of the deployer venues, the field name HIP-3 uses for a deployer's share of fees, and a top-level feeScale of 3; no page explains either for outcomes.

Builder fees are a front end's, not the venue's. Builder codes work as on spot: an interface that specifies its code earns a builder fee on sell orders. A terminal such as Stand charges one on top of whatever Hyperliquid takes.

Markets & resolution

Recurring markets settle to the chain's own price. The contract specifications give the rule for the daily binary: Yes if the BTC mark price, linearly interpolated between the mark updates either side of the settlement time, is at or above the target price. The three-bucket market uses the same interpolation. The protocol deploys and settles these on its own cadence, and there is at most one recurring series per type, underlying and period.

Every other market is settled by its deployer. The info endpoint names each deployer's address and the sub-deployer addresses it has authorised to register outcomes and to call settleOutcome and settleQuestion. Each market's description names what it settles on — ESPN, the NBA, the NFL, a league for soccer, gol.gg for esports, a Pyth index price or a perp mark for the price binaries — but the act of settling is a transaction signed by the deployer's addresses. The interface terms disclaim liability for "erroneous outcome determination and disputed settlements"; no dispute or appeal process for outcome markets is documented.

Questions link several outcomes of which exactly one settles Yes, each on its own book, with negate and merge operations so that No shares across a question can be redeemed for USDC before the outcomes settle.

Integrations

Outcome markets use Hyperliquid's public API, which the HIP-4 page says is "similar to spot", with outcome assets addressed by an encoding of outcome id and side (coins named #<encoding>). The info endpoint's outcomeMeta lists every outcome, question and deployer without a key, and recent trades for an outcome coin come back like any spot coin's; we read both on 23 October 2026. Orders go through the exchange endpoint, including split, merge and negate actions. The official Python SDK, whose latest commit was on 4 June 2026 (UTC; release 0.24.0 the same day), contains no outcome-specific code, so the Python flag is off; signing outcome actions from Python means building them yourself.

Third-party products already route here: Stand trades these markets, CCXT and PMXT list Hyperliquid among their venues, and Kairos, FinFeedAPI and Artemis carry the market data.

Limitations

• No published fee. Two Hyperliquid pages disagree, and the chain shows sells being charged.
• Settlement of most markets rests on a deployer's keys, with no documented dispute process.
• An exclusion list you cannot read. Outcome markets can be closed to a jurisdiction by designation, on top of the US and Ontario.
• The documentation lags the chain. The HIP-4 page still describes a single BTC market and multi-outcome markets as not yet live; the endpoint shows hundreds of markets and 29 questions.
• The official Python SDK does not cover outcomes.
• Nobody here has funded a wallet. Everything above is read from Hyperliquid's documentation, the interface's Terms of Use, the info endpoint and the official SDK repository on 23 October 2026.

Alternatives

Polymarket is the larger on-chain order book, with sports and politics depth this venue does not have and an external oracle, UMA, instead of deployer settlement. Limitless is the closest match for short-dated crypto price markets, resolving most of them against Pyth. Both are compared with the other offshore books in the offshore venue head-to-head. A US reader needs a CFTC-regulated exchange such as Kalshi.