Alphapoly (polymarket-alpha-bot)

What it is

A self-hosted application, not a library and not a service: a FastAPI backend, a web front end you run on localhost, and a pipeline that looks for covering portfolios across correlated Polymarket contracts - sets of positions that pay out together whatever happens, bought for less than they must be worth. Chainstack Labs publishes it under Apache-2.0 as polymarket-alpha-bot, and the README calls the product Alphapoly.

The pipeline is five stages and the repository is candid about which of them a model runs:

1. Groups - fetch markets from Polymarket and group them by event.
2. Implications - an LLM extracts logical relationships between groups.
3. Validation - a second LLM pass validates each implication at the individual market level.
4. Portfolios - compute cost and expected profit for validated pairs against live prices.
5. Positions - track what you bought and what it is worth.

Trading runs through a per-user deposit wallet - Polymarket signature type 3 - which the app deploys gaslessly using a Relayer API key from your Polymarket account settings, with the relayer paying gas. You fund the deposit wallet with pUSD. The README notes that bare externally-owned accounts cannot trade directly on the V2 order book because of an allowlist, which is the sort of detail that costs an afternoon to discover on your own.

It is also built to be driven by an agent. .claude/skills/ holds six skills - run the pipeline, fetch portfolio opportunities, enter a position, exit a position, add a feature, scaffold an experiment - and AGENTS.md is a symlink to the same instructions for other agent runners.

Availability

The software installs anywhere: Python through uv, Node 18 or newer, and everything runs on your own machine.

The venue does not. Polymarket's on-chain exchange does not serve US persons - see polymarket - and this app trades there and nowhere else. Nothing stops a US reader installing it and reading its output, but what it is for is placing those trades, so the flags on this card are the venue's reach: what stops a US reader is the account at the other end. A US reader who wants this shape of strategy needs a different venue, and there is no equivalent for polymarket-us here.

Note also what leaves your machine while it runs: market text and prompts go to OpenRouter, whichever model you point it at, and JSON-RPC calls go to your Polygon node provider.

Pricing

The code is free and Apache-2.0 licensed. Running it is not: the pipeline makes two LLM passes over grouped markets, and you pay OpenRouter for those tokens, plus whatever your Polygon RPC provider charges. Chainstack, which publishes the repository, sells exactly that kind of node access and the README points at its free tier - worth knowing when reading the recommendation.

Trading fees are Polymarket's, and the gas for deploying the deposit wallet is paid by Polymarket's relayer rather than by you.

Markets & resolution

The app resolves nothing; Polymarket does, through the UMA optimistic oracle, and that is the mechanism the whole strategy depends on. A covering portfolio only pays if both legs resolve the way their logical relationship says they must - so an oracle dispute, an ambiguous question or a market resolved on a technicality is not an edge case here, it is the failure mode.

The markets it looks at are whatever Polymarket lists, which in practice means politics, sports, macro, crypto and business questions. It works on the V2 stack with pUSD collateral; the V1 USDC.e path was retired on 2026-04-28 and survives only as the v1-final tag.

Integrations

Python backend, Node front end, Polymarket's own polymarket-client SDK in the verification scripts, OpenRouter for models, and a Polygon RPC endpoint. The backend exposes its own HTTP API with generated documentation at /docs.

There is no MCP server, no exchange abstraction and no second venue.

Limitations

An LLM decides what implies what. Two of the five pipeline stages are model calls, and the arithmetic downstream is only as good as they are. A hallucinated implication produces a pair that looks covered and is not, which is a position with real money in it and no hedge behind it. The repository is explicit that this is what the model does, which is why this card carries ai_features: research rather than anything stronger - it analyses relationships, it does not forecast outcomes or tell you which side will win.

It went quiet in July. Last commit on main 2026-07-28, no release since the v1-final tag of 2026-04-27, 181 stars. Not archived, and the V2 migration it documents is recent - but a strategy app against a moving on-chain venue needs someone at the other end.

It wants four credentials and one of them is a signing key. The wallet holds funds and the key that signs orders is the key that can move them. The README carries no guidance on handling it - its only safety language is a closing disclaimer that the software is for education and research, is not financial advice, and that you may lose money. Re-read on 21 September 2026.

No backtest and no paper mode. There is no simulator: the pipeline prices live markets and the positions you take are real.

Published by an infrastructure vendor. Chainstack sells Polygon nodes, and this is a good piece of developer marketing for them as well as a working app. Nothing about it is hidden, but the default node recommendation is not neutral.

Nothing here has been run by us - not the pipeline, not a deposit wallet, not a fill.

Alternatives

Chainstack publishes a second, smaller thing in the same territory: polyclaw, an OpenClaw skill that browses Polymarket, executes trades and scans for hedges from a chat interface. It is Apache-2.0 as well and was last committed to in April 2026. It is not carded here.

For a terminal you do not have to run yourself, polyrama covers Polymarket and Kalshi with strategies and backtests.

For a hosted scanner that compares the same event across venues rather than related markets on one, ArbBets matches Kalshi, Polymarket and other venues, from 149 USD a month. It routes no order itself, so execution stays a separate integration you build.

For building your own instead of running this one, the venue SDKs are polymarket-client for Polymarket, with ccxt and pmxt if the strategy needs more than one venue.

For a self-hosted bot that rests post-only quotes for liquidity rewards and maker rebates rather than trading covering positions, poly-maker is MIT-licensed and maker-only.