Phantom Prediction Markets

What it is

Phantom is a self-custodial crypto wallet, published by Phantom Technologies, Inc., best known on Solana. Its mobile app has a Predict tab where you pick a market, choose Yes or No, enter an amount and confirm a quote, paying from your Cash balance or from any Solana token in the wallet. Every market has a live chat beside it.

Which market you are trading depends on where you live, and the app makes the choice, not you:

• In the United States, Kalshi. Phantom's help article says that in the US "prediction markets in Phantom are offered through Kalshi, a US-regulated exchange". Phantom creates a Kalshi account for you during setup, or links one you already hold, and Kalshi "creates and lists event contracts, defines market rules, executes trades, determines outcomes and payouts, settles positions, and enforces eligibility". Phantom provides "account setup, identity-verification flows, market and position displays, and the movement of funds". Phantom's launch post of 23 October 2026 says it is "beginning to roll out prediction markets to users in the United States, with access expanding over the next few weeks", and ends: "Phantom is not registered with the CFTC. Prediction markets offered by KalshiEX LLC."
• Elsewhere, World Prediction Markets. Phantom's disclosures, dated 1 July 2026, say positions opened on or after 1 June 2026 are "powered by World Prediction Markets", "a non-custodial prediction markets protocol" on Solana. World's Terms of Service name the World Protocol Foundation, a Cayman Islands foundation company, which says it operates no interface itself. Phantom is one of the third-party front ends its terms describe.

Before 1 June 2026 the app traded Kalshi contracts tokenized by DFlow, which Phantom launched in December 2025; its disclosures still carry the settlement terms for positions opened then. The product page's FAQ, read the same day, still describes that arrangement.

Why this is a brokered-access card, though Phantom is no broker. Phantom resolves nothing and lists nothing; what it adds is the layer between you and the market — its own fee, its own selection of markets, its own identity flow and its own country list. That is the test this category's brokered_access job runs on. But Phantom is not a futures commission merchant and not a registered introducing broker. It relies on CFTC staff Letter 26-09 of 17 March 2026, in which the Market Participants Division said it would not recommend enforcement against Phantom for failing to register as an introducing broker, while it acts as a front end for a designated contract market or for registered FCMs and IBs. The position rests on Phantom's representation that it will never hold user funds, generate buy or sell signals or exercise discretion over routing, and its ten conditions include that users are onboarded as direct members or customers of that partner and can reach it without Phantom, that Phantom and each partner sign an undertaking to be jointly and severally liable for violations, and that Phantom treats its marketing as if it were registered. The position lasts until the Commission issues a rule or guidance on software providers, and binds the Division only. Phantom's post announcing the relief adds that it "does not cover DeFi derivatives or tokenized prediction markets"; the US route is the Kalshi account, and World's own terms bar US persons outright.

Availability

One route per reader, and the two cover different places.

United States, through Kalshi, rolling out. Trading needs a Kalshi account created or linked in the app and Kalshi's identity check, run through Phantom: full legal name, date of birth, residential address, Social Security number, email, a verified US phone number and a US government ID, with Socure capturing an ID or a live selfie where more is needed. Phantom says there is generally no manual review if verification is refused. Kalshi's own state-by-state position applies through the exchange; Phantom publishes no state list. Rollout started on 23 October 2026 and, by Phantom's post, widens over the following weeks, so an eligible US user may not see the tab yet. Phantom's regional availability article, read the same day, still lists prediction markets as not available in the US; the US help articles and the launch post are the newer documents.

Outside the US, through World. Phantom's regional article bars the UK, Germany and jurisdictions under US sanctions. World's own list is far longer, and as the protocol behind the route it binds too: it bars Afghanistan, Algeria, Angola, Australia, Belarus, Belgium, Bolivia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cameroon, Canada, the Central African Republic, China, Côte d'Ivoire, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Ethiopia, France, Germany, Haiti, Hungary, India, Iran, Iraq, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Kenya, Laos, Lebanon, Libya, Mali, Malta, Monaco, Mozambique, Myanmar, Namibia, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Nicaragua, Niger, North Korea, Poland, Portugal, Russia, Singapore, Slovakia, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Switzerland, Syria, Taiwan, Thailand, Ukraine, the United Arab Emirates, the UK, the US and its minor outlying islands, Venezuela, Yemen and Zimbabwe. World's terms apply the bar to residents, citizens and anyone located there, prohibit VPNs and make the front end responsible for screening. Neither Phantom nor World asks for identity documents on this route: World says it "does not require KYC", and the restriction is the country list. You must be 18, or the age of majority where you live if that is higher.

The jurisdiction field is the union of the two routes and is coarse: the US through Kalshi only; Europe without Belgium, France, Germany, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal and the other named states; Asia without China, India, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand; Latin America without Brazil, Bolivia and Venezuela. Canada, Australia and the UK are out on both routes. The identity flag reads false because the World route asks for none; the US route always does.

Phantom's Terms of Use, last updated 17 March 2026, contain no clause specific to prediction markets. Read 2026-10-23.

Pricing

Two schedules, both shown in the quote before you confirm.

• US route: $0.02 a contract traded. Phantom's help article lists a "prediction fee" of "$0.02 per contract traded": "Phantom charges a flat platform fee of $0.01 per contract traded, in addition to Kalshi's own $0.01 exchange fee per contract." Ten contracts cost $0.20, half to each. It is charged on the buy and again on a cash-out; holding to settlement pays it once. Phantom prints Kalshi's layer as a flat cent, which is not the price-dependent curve on Kalshi's own schedule for direct members (1.75 cents a contract at 50 cents for a taker); this card reports what Phantom's schedule says.
• World route: 0.1 × p × (1 − p) a contract. Phantom's help article gives the formula, with p the contract price in dollars, and the worked example: 100 Yes contracts at $0.75 incur a Phantom fee of $1.875. At 50 cents that is 2.5 cents a contract, falling to 0.9 cents at 10 or 90 cents. World's Terms of Service say the Foundation "does not currently charge fees for the Services" and reserve the right to add them on notice; its "What am I charged?" page names only a network fee on a buy or a sell, and a refundable rent deposit on your first buy in a market.

Why the fee fields read 2.5. The app picks the route by residence, so a reader cannot take the cheaper one, and the catalogue's rule for app-picked routes is the dearest route with a published schedule, all layers included. At 50 cents the World route's 2.5 cents beats the Kalshi route's 2. Away from the middle the order flips: at 10 cents the US route's flat 2 cents is more than twice the World route's 0.9. Phantom's fee is charged per contract whatever the order, and the World route takes market orders only, so the maker field repeats the taker figure.

Off the fill. Paying from wallet tokens costs a little SOL in Solana network fees; paying from the Cash balance is gasless. On the US route a "network fee" that varies covers moving funds from your Cash balance to Kalshi, including token-account creation and what Phantom calls "the gasless service fee"; proceeds come back to Cash through Stripe, and amounts under $1 can stay at Kalshi because they are below its withdrawal minimum. The no-action letter allows Phantom both to charge users a transaction fee and to take a share of its partner's revenue; Phantom's pages publish the first and say nothing about the second.

Markets & resolution

Phantom decides no outcome on either route.

• Kalshi route. The help article: "Kalshi determines market outcomes." Resolution takes 10 to 15 minutes for sports and longer for other categories; a disputed result goes to Kalshi's support address, not to Phantom. A game-winner market without a tie outcome settles at 50 cents a contract for both teams on a tie. Kalshi's maintenance window, Thursdays 3 to 5 a.m. ET, stops trading in the app too. Your Phantom positions sit in a sub-account at Kalshi that is separate from any balance you hold on kalshi.com, and are represented in the wallet as Solana tokens usable only through the app. Settlement is in dollars at Kalshi, moved back to your Cash balance.
• World route. World's terms describe markets created by a market creator who designates the outcome's source, the "Oracle", and traded "against an automated market maker that sets buy and sell prices", with collateral held in a smart-contract reserve. World's help centre says the result comes from an independent oracle published on Solana; crypto Up/Down markets settle when they close, some on a Chainlink TWAP feed; event markets post a provisional result, wait out a short challenge window and then settle. A market that cannot resolve cleanly can pay each side a share of $1. Payouts arrive automatically as CASH. World's terms say the Foundation will not review or override a resolution, and that a resolution once recorded "cannot be reversed, modified or disputed through the Foundation"; Phantom's article tells you to contact Phantom Support.

Phantom's disclosures describe every transaction as peer-to-peer between users, and World's own terms describe trading against an automated market maker; on the World route the price you get is the curve's, with a slippage tolerance in World's app, not a book.

Markets span sports, politics, economics and culture on the US route, and sports, politics, crypto and culture on the World route.

Integrations

None. Phantom's help article: "Phantom does not offer a public API for this feature, and external development is not supported." Prediction markets are in the mobile app only, not the browser extension, and Ledger accounts are not supported.

Limitations

• You do not choose the venue. Residence picks Kalshi or World, with different fees, rules, resolution and regulator.
• Phantom is not a registered intermediary. It operates on a staff no-action position that the Division can modify or withdraw, and that a future Commission rule replaces.
• The US rollout is partial. Access began on 23 October 2026 and widens over weeks, and Phantom's own regional page still says the US is excluded.
• A flat 2 cents a contract in the US, each way, which is a fifth of a 10-cent contract.
• Market orders only, whole contracts only, and a cash-out needs a buyer: Phantom warns you may be unable to sell even when a position shows a profit.
• Do not burn the outcome tokens. Phantom warns that token clean-up tools can destroy them and that it cannot recover burned tokens.
• No API.
• Nobody here has funded an account. Everything above is read from Phantom's product page, disclosures, help articles, regional availability page, Terms of Use and blog posts, World's Terms of Service and help centre, and CFTC Letter 26-09, on 23 October 2026.

Alternatives

Kalshi direct has the same US contracts with limit orders, an API and a fee curve of its own. Webull, Robinhood and tastytrade are the brokerage apps reselling Kalshi's book; the Kalshi-through-a-broker head-to-head sets their fee layers side by side. Outside the US, Polymarket and the venues in the offshore head-to-head are order books you trade directly from a wallet.