What to use instead of Insight Prediction

The product

Insight Prediction described itself as an information markets platform developed by academics. In practice it was a small, crypto-funded event market for people outside the United States, with categories for US politics, sports, world politics, current events, economics, science and crypto. You deposited crypto or stablecoins, the operator converted them to dollar balances at no stated fee, and you traded contracts that paid a dollar if they came true.

Two things about it were unusual and both are in the terms, read on 19 September 2026. The first is who quoted the prices: on markets where the operator's own bot was the market maker, including sports, the operator reserved the right to unwind trades where that bot posted odds after an event had already begun, posted incorrect odds or plainly malfunctioned, and warned that buying mispriced shares after the fact could get funds frozen. The second is who decided outcomes: users agreed to treat resolution decisions as final and waived the right to sue over how those decisions were made. The venue was the counterparty, the pricing engine and the judge.

The jurisdiction rules were explicit. No corporate accounts, one account per person and one per household or IP address, no residents of Afghanistan, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Libya, the Marshall Islands, North Korea, the Russian Federation, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Crimea and Sevastopol, Yemen or Zimbabwe — and no trading from within the United States at all.

How it went quiet. Nothing was announced; the listing simply emptied. In the Internet Archive's snapshot of 4 April 2025 the home page carried four markets across its two shelves — G7 attendance, a nuclear-detonation question, a Ukraine-war question and whether 2025 would be the hottest year on record. By 4 August 2025 there were two, the hottest-year market quoted at 4 percent yes against 99 percent no. By 1 January 2026 there was one, the hottest-year market, with a resolution date of 15 January 2026. The snapshot of 13 February 2026 shows none, and so does every snapshot after it — 2 March, 20 April and 14 May 2026.

That is still true today. On 19 September 2026 the home page returned no markets to either shelf, the markets page said there were none to display, the leaderboards page rendered with no rows and the recent-trades page rendered its two headings over nothing. The footer's copyright reads 2026 and the terms are unchanged. This page records the end date as 15 January 2026 — the resolution date of the last market the site ever listed — because the operator has published nothing better, and we would rather name the date we can defend than the day a page happened to be checked.

Where the brand went. Into a different business. The site's own menu and footer now lead to Poly Trader Pro, a desktop application for trading on Polymarket with faster order entry, fill and price alerts and wallet switching — the venue turned into a trading client for somebody else's venue. Its instructions page carries the date 5/10/2025 in its own text, in a format that does not say whether it means May or October, and notes that the program is unregistered on macOS.

What to use instead

The honest answer depends on which half of it you were there for, because nothing replaces both.

If you were there because a price was always there, you want a house market maker, not an order book. Futuur is the closest thing in the catalogue: an LS-LMSR market maker quotes both sides, an editorial team resolves each market against the public source named in its rules and voids what cannot be resolved fairly, and every question runs twice — in play money and in USDC or USDT. Myriad is the same property from an AMM, on BNB Chain, Abstract, Linea and Celo, at 0.5 percent taker. Both keep the thing an order book cannot promise, which is a price when nobody else is around.

If you were there because you were outside the United States and wanted the real question set, go where the liquidity is. Polymarket is self-custody on Polygon for non-US traders, resolves through the UMA optimistic oracle rather than an operator's judgement, and lists in a day what Insight listed in a year. Limitless is a central limit order book on Base with YES and NO shares fully collateralised in USDC, 1.5 percent taker and zero maker, no identity check, and terms that bar US traders exactly as Insight's did.

If you were there because the questions were odd and specific — a G7 attendance market with 505 dollars of volume is not a market any exchange would bother listing — the replacement is not a venue with money in it. Manifold lets you write that question yourself and have it live in a minute, in play money, and Metaculus will score the same kind of question properly without anybody taking a position at all.

If you are in the United States, none of the four applies and never did. Kalshi and the US platform of Polymarket are CFTC-designated exchanges with identity checks — a different product, legally and practically, and the only one available to you.

What you give up

A quoted price in a market with nobody in it. This is the real loss and it is easy to undersell. The bot made a two-sided market on questions that would sit untouched on an order book for weeks; at 4 percent against 99 percent the spread was atrocious, but you could always get out. On Limitless or Polymarket a thin market means no fill at any price, which is a different kind of stuck. Only the AMM and market-maker venues keep this, and they charge for it in the spread.

A venue that would list a question worth 500 dollars. Insight's catalogue was small because somebody was writing questions by hand for an audience of a few hundred. A designated exchange will not list that question, an on-chain book will not attract anyone to it, and the one place it survives is play money. You are choosing between a question you care about with no money on it and a question you care less about with a real market in it.

Dollar balances without a wallet. Deposits were converted to dollars inside the platform, so you never held a position denominated in a token whose price moved under you and you never managed a key. Three of the four picks hand you exactly that job — a wallet, gas, a stablecoin and the custody of both. That is more control and strictly more work, and it is also a different tax conversation in most countries.

Someone who could undo an obvious mistake. The same clause that let the operator unwind trades against its malfunctioning bot also let it unwind a fat-fingered trade of yours if you wrote in promptly. On-chain venues have no such counter. A fill is final, the oracle is the only appeal, and nobody is reading your email about the price you meant to type.

Migration notes

Do not deposit to find out whether withdrawals work. There is no closure notice, no statement about balances and nobody has answered the question in public. The sign-in page still loads and the terms still disclaim liability for loss of data or profit and for any inability to use the site. If you have a balance there, the support address in the terms is the only route, and a written record of what you are owed is worth making now.

The bot-error clause and the resolution waiver both disappear, in both directions. You can no longer have a trade unwound because the house's quote was wrong; you also cannot appeal to anybody when you are the one who was wrong. On Polymarket the substitute is a bonded UMA proposal with a challenge window and escalation to a token-holder vote; on Limitless most markets resolve automatically against Pyth or a Chainlink TWAP and only custom markets go to the team. Read which one you are trading before you need it.

KYC is not the step that changes; custody is. Insight asked for no identity documents, and Futuur, Limitless and Myriad do not either. What changes is that your funds now sit in a wallet you control on a chain you have to fund for gas, and a lost key is a lost balance with nobody to mail. Fund a fresh wallet with what you intend to trade and nothing else.

If you follow the brand to Poly Trader Pro, read the setup page twice. Its own instructions ask you to enter a wallet's private key into the application, or to export your Polymarket private key by magic link and paste that in. A private key handed to a third-party desktop program is a key that program can use without you. If you decide the speed is worth it, give it a wallet funded with a trading float you could afford to lose entirely, never your main one — and note that the catalogue already holds cross-venue clients like Polyrama that sit behind a token rather than a key.