Convexly

What it is

A wallet-level research tool for Polymarket, built around a claim most of this category does not make: that the number should come with its own error bars and its own failed tests. Paste a public Polygon address and it returns the available record — reported profit and loss, resolved positions, and, importantly, the gaps in the history it could read. An Edge Score composites three pillars (baseline-adjusted Brier, concentration of profit and loss, count of resolved positions) against a frozen 8,656-wallet reference cohort.

Two things are unusual enough to be the reason to look at it. The first is that a read is dated and anchored: a full read is rebuilt from the Polygon settlement record and carries a block-anchored completeness proof, and every row on a wallet page says whether it came from that full read or from a recent-trade window that omits positions already redeemed. The board of 12 September 2026 had 31 of its 42 wallets read in full; the site prints the ratio rather than implying all of them were.

The second is the methods index — 27 methodology papers, 15 registered forward tests, 4 published negative results at the time of writing. One of those negatives is about its own instrument: a pre-registered forward test of the Market Trust rating returned no separation, and the rating surfaces were frozen on 5 September 2026 rather than quietly re-tuned. A July 2026 note points the skill-versus-luck filter at Convexly's own published top-50 leaderboard and reports that zero of the 35 readable wallets clear its own bar.

Availability

Nothing to deposit and no venue account to hold, so the jurisdiction questions that decide a venue card do not apply. The terms set no geographic restriction and require only that you are at least 16 years old; browsing and the first wallet check need no account at all. An account is for watchlists, digests, alerts, exports, paid features and API keys, and it is created with an email address rather than an identity document.

What the tool cannot do is make Polymarket available to you. If the venue does not serve your country, reading its settlement record here changes nothing about that.

Checked against the terms of service on 19 September 2026; those terms carry an effective date of 8 March 2026 and a last-updated date of 9 August 2026, and the privacy policy was updated on 28 August 2026.

Pricing

Free is a real tier rather than a demo: any public wallet or market can be checked, the first check without signing up, and a free account watches one wallet and receives the Monday email.

The paid ladder is metered on two different things, which the vendor separates explicitly. Watching a wallet gets you the change emails. Keeping one current means re-reading its full on-chain record on a schedule, and that is the part that costs. Watchlist at 9 USD a month covers three wallets re-read every 30 days; Researcher at 49 USD covers ten on the same cadence and adds on-chain reconciliation, per-category calibration, a Kelly replay over a wallet's resolved positions, CSV export and a public API key under a daily row quota; Trader at 499 USD covers fifty wallets re-read every seven days and polls a 25-wallet alert list every five minutes. Every self- serve tier prices its year at ten times its month, so the annual rate is twelve months for the price of ten, and the figures above are the month-to-month ones.

There is also a 19 USD one-time purchase: a single reconciled read of one named wallet, delivered with the block it was reconciled at, a hash over that subset and the command that re-derives it against any Polygon archive node, refundable within 14 days. Design Partner and Custom Enterprise engagements are quoted per engagement and start at 100 wallets.

Prices read from the vendor's plan table on 19 September 2026.

Markets & resolution

Nothing here resolves anything. Every price, position and outcome is Polymarket's, and Polymarket's resolution process decides it. What Convexly adds on top is a resolution surface: market pages carry a free resolution tab, and a Researcher-plan Resolution Lab holds captured settlement records, proposal rounds and the source transactions behind them. That is a record of how a market settled, not a second opinion about whether it settled correctly.

Coverage follows whatever Polymarket lists. The market index on the day this card was written held Russian and US election questions, Federal Reserve rate questions, football fixtures and Counter-Strike and League of Legends matches, side by side.

One boundary worth stating plainly, because the vendor states it: Convexly executes no trades, routes no orders, holds no funds and mirrors nobody's positions. Following a wallet produces a notification, not an order.

Integrations

A public API is part of the Researcher tier and above; each endpoint lists its own authentication and plan requirement, and a chain-only resolved-markets feed is queryable by API key under a daily row quota. Paid tiers export a watched wallet's read as CSV — "the rows, not a screenshot", in the vendor's phrasing. A Polymarket import turns a public wallet's history into Convexly position records.

There is no published Python client, no WebSocket and no MCP server; an agent integration is advertised as a waitlist rather than a product. Optional AI features send text you submit to OpenAI's API for structuring and summarisation, and the terms say AI output is analytical assistance and not advice.

Limitations

The Polymarket reference cohort behind the headline scores is not published. The vendor says so itself, and corrected an earlier page that had implied otherwise: only the Manifold half of the cross-venue Edge Score paper ships a reproducible data bundle, so the Polymarket results are recomputable by Convexly and not currently by a reader.

A full read does not always complete, and the census says how often it does not. Of the attempts behind the published census, generated 22 August 2026 over reads through 17 August, a further 100 full reads did not finish and are excluded — the vendor is explicit that this is a count of reads done rather than a rate for Polymarket wallets.

Several methodology registrations are self-asserted rather than externally verified. The site marks them "public receipt not yet verified" until a verifier can match the registration ID, title and filing date, and says V1 and V1-M are frozen version-controlled papers rather than external pre-registrations.

One venue. Polymarket only on the product surface. Manifold appears in one methodology paper, not as coverage you can query.

The self-serve licence is one named individual. The terms forbid sharing an account or API key, and forbid displaying, embedding or republishing Convexly output to third parties — including your own clients — without a separate written agreement. Scraping without permission is also out.

The signal feed is labelled experimental by its own author, and the site's claim-boundary page says current evidence supports neither a trading-profit claim nor an availability guarantee.

Alternatives

Polymarket Analytics and Predicts.guru cover the same addresses with leaderboards and profit-and-loss rankings and without the methodological apparatus. Airavat scores traders 0–100 and adds filters and paper-trading pods. Polyrama reads Polymarket and Kalshi side by side and will also place an order, which Convexly deliberately will not.