# Quantified Intuitions

Forecast questions that already resolved, and learn in ninety seconds how wrong you were.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/quantified-intuitions · Forecasting Platforms*

## Facts

### At a glance

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Vendor | Sage |
| Category | Forecasting Platforms |
| Job | calibration |
| Website | https://quantifiedintuitions.org |
| Pricing model | open-source |
| Free tier | true |
| Open source | true |
| Licence | MIT |
| Self-hosted | false |
| Tested hands-on | false |
| Last updated | 2026-09-19 |

### Availability

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Jurisdictions | global |
| Open to US persons | true |
| KYC required | false |

### Markets

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Subjects | politics, macro, science, business, culture |
| Settlement | play_money |
| Resolved by | Nothing is resolved here, because everything already was — pastcasting serves resolved Metaculus and Good Judgment Open questions and links the original after you submit, and estimation answers are published figures. |

### Economics

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Taker fee | none |
| Maker fee | none |
| Liquidity model | none |
| Platforms | web |
| AI features | none |

### Interfaces

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| API | false |
| WebSocket | false |
| Scripting | none |
| Python | false |
| MCP server | false |
| Export | none |

### Capabilities

Yes: charting, calibration_scoring

No: screening, order_book, backtesting, automation, live_trading, paper_trading, portfolio_tracking, cross_venue, alerts, news, tax_reporting

*Verified: pricing 2026-09-19; availability 2026-09-19; markets 2026-09-19; capabilities 2026-09-19.*

## What it is

A training site rather than a forecasting platform, built by Sage, the charity behind Fatebook.
Everything here exists to shorten the feedback loop: on a real forecasting platform you learn
whether you were right in eighteen months, and here you learn in ninety seconds.

**Pastcasting** is the part worth the visit. It serves you a question that already resolved,
presented as it stood on a chosen vantage date — the question text, the background, and the
comment thread people wrote at the time — and asks for your probability. The original crowd
forecast is on the page but hidden behind a "Show" button. To stop the future leaking in, the
site ships **Vantage Search**, a search engine that only returns results published before the
vantage point, falling back on the Wayback Machine for archived pages, which is why it is slow.
The questions are already-resolved Metaculus and Good Judgment Open questions, and the site links
the original after you have committed.

Scoring is a **log score relative to the crowd forecast at the vantage date**: match the crowd
exactly and you score zero, beat it and you score positive. The site states, correctly, that the
rule is strictly proper. There is a leaderboard, a charts page, and a multiplayer mode.

Two other tools sit beside it. **Calibration** asks trivia questions and wants a confidence
interval rather than an answer, scored by the Greenberg rule — a bounded score that pays for an
interval both containing the answer and being narrow, with a deliberately gentler floor on
challenge questions so one disaster does not wipe out a session. **The Estimation Game** is a
monthly themed quiz you play in a team, with a leaderboard per month; the September 2026 edition
was called Digital literacy and ran 23 to 30 September, and the archive on the same page goes
back month by month for years. **Anki with Uncertainty** turns a flashcard deck into calibration
practice.

## Availability

Free, worldwide, no identity check. Signing in is a Google account and nothing else — the
calibration tool, the estimation game questions and your charts all redirect to a Google sign-in,
so an account with that provider is effectively required to use anything but pastcasting's front
page.

**There is no terms of service and no privacy policy.** Both paths return 404. For a free
training tool with nothing at stake that is a small thing, but it is worth knowing before an
employer's security review asks.

## Pricing

Free, with nothing to buy and nothing to subscribe to. Sage funds it as a charity and links a
donation page. The source is MIT-licensed.

## Markets & resolution

Nothing resolves here, which is the entire point. Every question already has an answer before you
see it, and what the site withholds is your access to it: the crowd forecast is hidden until you
ask, search results after the vantage date are filtered out, and the link to the original
question appears only after you submit. If you already know the answer to a pastcasting question
there is a checkbox to say so, which takes it out of the pool.

That makes the platform's relationship to the rest of this category an unusual one: it is
downstream of [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) and [Good Judgment
Open](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/good-judgment-open) rather than a competitor to them, and it exists because their
resolved archives are a training set nobody else was using.

## Integrations

None to speak of. There is no public API, no export and no documented way to get your own history
out — the routes under `/api/v0` are the app's own, session-authenticated and undocumented, and
an unauthenticated call to them is refused. The practical route to the data is the MIT-licensed
source rather than an endpoint.

The repository is actively committed to: the most recent commit on the default branch when this
card was written was 1 September 2026, and the repository is not archived. It is also a two-line
README with no setup instructions, so running your own instance means reading the Next.js and
Prisma configuration yourself.

## Limitations

**It does not build a record anyone else will read.** A pastcasting rank is a rank at a training
exercise on questions whose answers exist; it is not a forecasting track record, and presenting
it as one would be a category error. If you need a record for a research context, that is
[Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) or [Good Judgment Open](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/good-judgment-open), and it takes
years.

Calibration training has a known ceiling: a forecaster who becomes perfectly calibrated on trivia
intervals has acquired one of the two halves of a good forecast and not the other. Nothing here
trains the half that consists of knowing something.

Pastcasting has its own leak problem that no search filter fixes, and the site is honest about
it: you may simply remember what happened. The checkbox helps the question pool more than it
helps you.

Sage says explicitly that it is still gauging by usage whether pastcasting is a useful addition
to the forecasting ecosystem before committing more time to it. That is a candid thing to publish
and also a statement about how much to depend on the site.

## Alternatives

[Fatebook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fatebook) is the same organisation's tool for the opposite problem — real
questions about your own future, scored slowly. [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) and [Good Judgment
Open](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/good-judgment-open) are where the questions here come from, and where a record
counts for something. [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold) if you want a fast feedback loop on live
questions and can live with profit rather than a proper score as the measure.

## FAQ

### What is pastcasting?

Forecasting a question that has already resolved, from a vantage point in the past. The site shows you the question as it stood on a given date, hides the crowd forecast until you ask for it, and gives you a search engine that returns only pages published before that date so nothing from the future leaks in.

### How does Quantified Intuitions score a pastcast?

By a log score relative to the original crowd forecast at the vantage date — match the crowd exactly and you score zero. The site states that the rule is strictly proper, so the way to maximise your expected score is to report what you actually believe.

### Is there a Brier score on Quantified Intuitions?

No. Pastcasting uses a relative log score, and the calibration and estimation tools use Greenberg interval scoring, which rewards an interval that contains the answer and is narrow. The word Brier does not appear in the codebase.

### Where do the pastcasting questions come from?

Already-resolved Metaculus and Good Judgment Open questions, complete with the comment threads that were written at the time. A link to the original question page appears after you submit your own forecast.

## Also from Sage

- [Fatebook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fatebook.md)

## Background

- [How accurate a prediction market's price actually is](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-accurate-the-price-is.md) — What research establishes about reading 73 cents as a 73% chance — where market prices are calibrated, the deviations that recur, and what the horizon does.
- [Scientific and government forecast hubs](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/scientific-forecast-hubs.md) — Public-health agencies run open, scored forecast hubs anyone can join. The unit of submission is a model, not a person, and nothing there is a personal record.
- [What a forecasting platform's score actually measures](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-forecasting-score-measures.md) — Proper rules, the two Brier conventions that differ by a factor of two, crowd-relative scores that do not travel between sites, and why profit is not accuracy.

## Also worth comparing

- [Confido](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/confido.md) — Open-source forecasting workspace you host yourself, with a Brier score pointing upwards.
- [Good Judgment Open](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/good-judgment-open.md) — Brier scores against the crowd, and the recruiting ground for Superforecasters.
- [Hypermind](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/hypermind.md) — Play money, a real order book, and a few thousand euro of prizes split by performance.
- [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold.md) — Anyone can open a question, anyone can take a side, and the currency buys nothing.
- [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus.md) — Proper scoring and public track records on questions nobody can take a position in.
- [Prediki](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/prediki.md) — A wiki with a market attached — anyone writes the question, edits it, votes the result.

## Named as a replacement for

- [PredictionBook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/predictionbook.md)