# Predict.fun A BNB Chain order book in Binance-pegged USDT, where open positions earn Venus yield. *https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predict-fun · Prediction Market Venues* ## Facts ### At a glance | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Vendor | Predict.fun | | Category | Prediction Market Venues | | Job | event_trading | | Website | https://predict.fun | | Pricing model | commission | | Free tier | false | | Open source | false | | Licence | none | | Self-hosted | false | | Tested hands-on | no | | Claimed by vendor | no | | Last updated | 2026-10-23 | ### Availability | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Jurisdictions | eu, asia, latam, ca | | Open to US persons | false | | KYC required | false | ### Markets | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Subjects | politics, sports, macro, crypto, culture, business | | Settlement | crypto | | Resolved by | UMA's optimistic oracle on every market created since March 2026 (a bonded proposal, a challenge window, a UMA token-holder vote on a second dispute); BTC Up/Down rounds settle on Chainlink Data Streams prices. | ### Economics | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Taker fee | 1 | | Maker fee | 0 | | Other fees | Predict keeps a 10% management fee on the Venus lending yield paid to open positions in yield-bearing markets; minimum order 1 USDT. | | Liquidity model | clob | | Platforms | web | | AI features | none | ### Interfaces | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | API | true | | WebSocket | true | | Scripting | none | | Python | true | | MCP server | false | | Export | api | ### Capabilities Yes: order_book, automation, live_trading, portfolio_tracking No: charting, screening, backtesting, paper_trading, calibration_scoring, cross_venue, alerts, news, tax_reporting, copy_trading *Verified: pricing 2026-10-23; availability 2026-10-23; economics 2026-10-23; markets 2026-10-23; capabilities 2026-10-23.* ## What it is Predict.fun is a prediction-market exchange on BNB Chain. Its home page title calls it "the BNB-native prediction market", and its documentation speaks of the venue simply as Predict. Each market is a conditional-token pair traded on a central limit order book, collateralised in USDT: splitting turns USDT into a YES/NO pair, merging turns the pair back into USDT, and a winning share redeems for $1. **Which USDT.** Predict's SDK names the collateral contract on BNB Chain as `0x55d398326f99059fF775485246999027B3197955`. Queried on chain on 23 October 2026, the contract calls itself "Tether USD" (symbol USDT); BscScan, in a Wayback capture of 4 August 2026, labels it Binance-Peg BSC-USD, one of the BEP-20 tokens it describes as backed by tokens held in Binance's public addresses. Tether's own supported-protocols page, read on 23 October 2026, gives no USD₮ contract on BNB Smart Chain, only XAU₮. So the dollar here is Binance's pegged token rather than one Tether lists; [what backs an on-chain venue's dollar](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-backs-an-on-chain-venues-dollar) sets out what that difference means. The operator named in the Terms of Service, last updated 18 November 2025, is **PDF Labs Limited**, under the laws of the British Virgin Islands, with arbitration seated in the BVI. The terms describe the site as primarily a news and information service with a separate feature for sending self-directed transactions to BNB Chain, and say the company does not operate an exchange, offer execution or clearing, or take custody. Two things about the account matter before the order book does. **Open positions can earn yield**: USDT collateral in markets marked Yield is supplied to Venus Protocol's lending market (see Pricing). And **the account is a smart wallet**: sign up with email, Google, X or a Web3 wallet, and Privy and ZeroDev create a smart-contract wallet that skips per-transaction approvals and gas. The wallets page says Predict cannot access your keys; you can export the underlying key from Settings and, if the site is unavailable, withdraw USDT by calling the ZeroDev contract directly, a procedure the same page walks through. Predict also runs as a dApp inside Binance Wallet, with its own referral scheme there. Points (Predict Points, paid for resting liquidity), boosted-points markets and prize campaigns around esports tournaments sit on top of the trading. ## Availability **Closed to the United States and a list of other countries, by residence, location and incorporation.** The Terms of Service, in the Wayback capture of 14 October 2026, prohibit trading by anyone who resides in, is located in or is incorporated in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium or Taiwan, or in any other restricted territory, and by anyone acting for such a person. The detailed "Restricted Jurisdictions" clause further down names citizens as well, and adds comprehensively sanctioned territories (Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea and the Crimea, Donetsk and Luhansk regions), but its list omits Australia and Belgium; the card takes the longer list in the notice at the top. Enforcement is in three layers. The site detects location: its restricted-country dialog reads "We've detected that you're visiting from a restricted jurisdiction." The signup step makes you attest that you are not a US person, not located in the US and not resident in a restricted jurisdiction. And the terms prohibit VPNs and say a wallet found in breach may be put into close-only mode. A restricted person may still use the site's information features. **No identity check at signup**, and none is documented. The terms let the company, or someone acting for it, ask for more information at any time, including proof that you are not a restricted person, and cut access or exclude you from rewards if it is not supplied. You must be 18 or older. Read 2026-10-23. The jurisdiction field is coarse: Europe excludes France, Poland and Belgium, Asia excludes Singapore, Thailand and Taiwan, Canada excludes Ontario, and Australia is out. ## Pricing **The vendor's unit: a taker fee of 2% times the cheaper side's price, per share.** The Fees and Limits page gives the formula as `Base Fee % × min(Price, 1 − Price) × Shares` with a base fee of 2%, and a table priced on 100 shares. At $0.50 the table charges 1.00 USDT, which is 1 cent a share (1¢ a share at 50¢), or 1% of the $1 payout: the figure in the taker field. The charge peaks there and falls on both sides, to 0.20 USDT per 100 shares at 10 or 90 cents and 0.02 USDT at 1 or 99 cents. **Why the page's "2%" is not the field.** For any price up to 50 cents the fee is exactly 2% of what the shares cost, so the page can say "2%" truthfully; it is 2% of the stake, not of the payout. At 50 cents, 2% of a 50-cent share is 1 cent, which is 1% of the dollar it pays. Above 50 cents the formula uses the other side's price, so the fee as a share of the stake falls to 0.02% at 99 cents. **Makers pay no fee.** That is the published schedule and why the maker field reads 0, not a negative number. A two-month **maker rebate trial** paid the resting side 25% of the taker fee on every fill in crypto Up/Down markets, in the same transaction. The maker rebates page dates the end of the trial to **16 September 2026** and says Predict would then decide whether to extend it, widen it or end it; the live page still carried the same wording on 23 October 2026, five weeks after the end date, and no page we could read says what was decided. It covered one market type, so under the standard-schedule rule it would not set the field even if it is still running. **Discounts that the field ignores.** The same fee table has a second column at 10% off (0.90 USDT per 100 shares at 50 cents). That is the invite discount: an account that signs up through another user's invite link gets 10% off trading fees, and the inviter earns 10% of that account's fees and Predict Points. Inside Binance Wallet a separate referral scheme gives the invitee a 5% rebate and the inviter 10% of fees. Both depend on how the account was opened, so neither is the standard rate. The Binance Wallet page also notes that some fees are collected in shares rather than USDT. **Off the fill.** Predict keeps a management fee of **10% of the yield** generated on open positions in yield-bearing markets. The yield has no fixed rate: it follows the utilisation of Venus's USDT pool, accrues by on-chain snapshot and is claimed weekly from the Portfolio page. The yields page warns that in a liquidity crunch on that pool, winnings in yield-bearing markets may be unclaimable for a while, and that Predict may pull all funds out of Venus and turn those markets into non-yield ones until it passes. The minimum order is 1 USDT, there is a limit of 10 open limit orders per market, and the smart wallet means you do not pay gas on trades. Fee, maker-rebates, yields, resolution and wallet pages and the Terms of Service read on the live documentation on 23 October 2026, and matching the Wayback captures of September and October 2026; Binance Wallet referral page and invites page from Wayback captures of 18 September 2026. ## Markets & resolution The home page, in a capture of 12 October 2026, lists sports (soccer, NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, tennis), esports (League of Legends, Dota 2, Counter-Strike, Valorant), politics and elections, crypto (including memecoin market-cap questions), economy, finance, stocks, commodities, tech and culture. Short-dated **Up/Down** markets run every 5 and 15 minutes on BTC, and daily on listed and unlisted companies and Asian indices (SK Hynix, KOSPI, the Hang Seng, Unitree). Volume is lopsided: on that capture a 2026 midterms market showed about $11.6 million traded and a La Liga winner market about $12.1 million, while two League of Legends Worlds matches the same week showed $20 and $707. **Most markets resolve through UMA's optimistic oracle.** The resolution page says that as of March 2026 every new market is served by it, and calls Predict UMA's favoured prediction-market partner on BNB Chain. Anyone may propose an outcome by posting a bond; if nobody disputes within the challenge window (about two hours in an undisputed case) the market resolves. A dispute posts an equal counter-bond and starts a second proposal round; a second dispute goes to a vote of UMA token holders, which can take up to a week. Markets created before March 2026 are not described. **BTC Up/Down rounds settle on Chainlink.** The developer page on price markets describes a `ChainlinkUpDownAdapter` that runs fixed-length rounds and resolves each one Up, Down or Flat from verified Chainlink Data Streams reports, with the end price becoming the next round's start price. The only stream it lists is BTC/USDT. If no report arrives within a 5-second buffer, an account holding an emergency role can close rounds by hand, and only while the contract is paused. Cyfrin's audit of that integration, dated 25 April 2026, reported five medium-severity findings, among them a single bad report halting a whole batch and a round series getting stuck. The daily stock and index Up/Down markets on the home page are not covered by that page, and we found no document naming their source. The terms take a different line from the documentation: the company "is not involved in nor responsible for the resolution" of any contract, which is "resolved by various on-chain oracles", and disputes go through each oracle's own process. ## Integrations - **REST API (beta)** — markets, order books, timeseries, orders, positions, account activity and referrals, plus OAuth endpoints for apps that place orders for their users. A mainnet API key is requested by opening a ticket on Predict's Discord and carries a default limit of 240 requests a minute; the testnet needs no key. - **WebSocket** — subscription topics with heartbeats, documented in the same reference. - **SDKs** in TypeScript (`@predictdotfun/sdk`, 1.3.8) and Python (`predict-sdk`, 0.0.22), both MIT-licensed and last published on 28 July 2026, used to sign orders from either a plain wallet or the Predict smart wallet. The API reference was read from Wayback captures dated December 2025 to May 2026; package versions from npm and PyPI on 2026-10-23. [Kairos](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kairos) routes orders to Predict.fun from a merged book with Kalshi and Polymarket and mirrors Predict.fun wallets in its copy trading; [Predexon](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predexon) includes it among the five venues of its cross-venue data, and [DepthFeed](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/depthfeed) reads the Up/Down markets Predict.fun backs inside Binance Wallet. ## Limitations - **Australia and Belgium are barred by the terms' notice** but missing from the detailed clause further down; read the notice as binding. - **Yield depends on a lending pool.** A liquidity crunch on Venus can delay claims on winnings in yield-bearing markets, by the venue's own warning, and Predict can switch the yield off. - **The maker rebate's status is unknown.** The only page about it describes a trial that ended on 16 September 2026. - **Terms and documentation disagree on who resolves.** The documentation describes UMA and Chainlink integrations Predict built; the terms disclaim any role in resolution. - **No source named for daily stock and index Up/Down markets** in any document we could read. - **The API is in beta** and its key is issued by support ticket. - **Thin books away from the headline markets**, on the venue's own volume figures. - **Nobody here has funded an account.** Everything above is read from Predict.fun's own documentation and Terms of Service (live and in Wayback captures), Wayback captures of its home page and developer reference (September and October 2026), its SDK's contract list, Cyfrin's audit, and the npm and PyPI registries, on 23 October 2026. ## Alternatives [Opinion](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/opinion) is the other order book on BNB Chain settled in USDT, with an in-house AI oracle instead of UMA and a maker rebate on every market. [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) runs the same UMA resolution on a far larger book. [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless) is the offshore order book on Base, settled in USDC; the head-to-head of [offshore venues](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/offshore-prediction-market-venues) sets these side by side. A US reader needs a CFTC-regulated exchange such as [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi) instead. ## FAQ ### What does a trade on Predict.fun cost? Takers pay 2% of min(price, 1 − price) per share, which peaks at 1 cent a share at a price of 50 cents (1% of the $1 payout) and falls towards the edges. Makers pay nothing. A referred account gets 10% off the taker fee. The minimum order is 1 USDT. ### Can US residents trade on Predict.fun? No. The Terms of Service bar trading by anyone residing in, located in or incorporated in the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Ontario, Singapore, Poland, Thailand, Australia, Belgium, Taiwan or a sanctioned territory, and the signup screen asks you to attest that you are not a US person. A restricted person may read the site but not trade. ### How do Predict.fun markets resolve? Every market created since March 2026 resolves through UMA's optimistic oracle. Anyone can propose the outcome with a bond; an undisputed proposal settles in about two hours, and a second dispute goes to a UMA token-holder vote that can take up to a week. The recurring BTC Up/Down rounds settle on Chainlink Data Streams prices instead. ### Do open positions on Predict.fun earn interest? In markets marked Yield, yes. USDT collateral is supplied to Venus Protocol's lending market, the yield is distributed weekly by snapshot of open positions, and Predict takes 10% of it. There is no fixed rate; it follows the utilisation of Venus's USDT pool. ### Is there an API for Predict.fun? Yes. A REST API in beta, with a WebSocket section, and order-signing SDKs in TypeScript and Python under the MIT licence. A mainnet API key is requested by support ticket on Predict's Discord and allows 240 requests a minute; the testnet needs no key. ## Background - [Event contract or swap, and why the label decides the case](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/event-contract-vs-swap.md) — Whether an event contract is a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act decides whether a state may regulate it. Three circuits have read it, and they divide. - [How a venue changes its rules, and where you can see it coming](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-a-venue-changes-its-rules.md) — A US exchange's rule changes wait ten business days in public; a fee under a dollar a contract need not. Broker fees and offshore terms change when posted. - [How much one account may hold, and what happens past the line](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-much-one-account-may-hold.md) — Position limits and accountability levels sound alike and work differently. Where each venue draws the line, in which unit, and what happens past it. ## Also worth comparing - [Futuur](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/futuur.md) — Play-money and real-money markets side by side, priced by an LS-LMSR market maker. - [Hyperliquid Outcome Markets](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/hyperliquid-outcome-markets.md) — HIP-4 outcome contracts on Hyperliquid's own chain, from daily crypto binaries to sports. - [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless.md) — Event contracts on Base, collateralised in USDC, traded on a central limit order book. - [Myriad](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/myriad.md) — Multi-chain event markets on an order book, some on an AMM, paid in stablecoins or points. - [Opinion](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/opinion.md) — A BNB Chain order book for macro, crypto and sports outcomes, resolved by its AI oracle. - [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket.md) — Self-custody event contracts on an on-chain order book, resolved by the UMA oracle.