# OrcaLayer

Polymarket whale analytics indexed from Polygon, with a published farmer filter.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/orcalayer · Prediction Market Analytics & Dashboards*

## Facts

### At a glance

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Vendor | OrcaLayer |
| Category | Prediction Market Analytics & Dashboards |
| Job | wallet_analytics |
| Website | https://orcalayer.com |
| Pricing model | subscription |
| Free tier | true |
| Open source | false |
| Licence | none |
| Self-hosted | false |
| Tested hands-on | false |
| Last updated | 2026-09-19 |

### Pricing

| Tier | USD | Period |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Free | 0 USD | — |
| Pro | 9.99 USD | — |
| Premium | 19.99 USD | — |

### Availability

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Jurisdictions | global |
| Open to US persons | true |
| KYC required | false |

### Markets

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Subjects | politics, sports, crypto, macro, business |
| Settlement | crypto |
| Resolved by | none |

### Economics

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Taker fee | none |
| Maker fee | none |
| Liquidity model | clob |
| Platforms | web, library |
| AI features | assistive |

### Interfaces

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| API | true |
| WebSocket | false |
| Scripting | none |
| Python | true |
| MCP server | true |
| Export | csv, json, api |

### Capabilities

Yes: charting, screening, backtesting, portfolio_tracking, alerts

No: order_book, automation, live_trading, paper_trading, calibration_scoring, cross_venue, news, tax_reporting

*Verified: pricing 2026-09-19; availability 2026-09-19.*

## What it is

A Polymarket wallet-analytics site that indexes the Polygon chain itself rather than consuming
another leaderboard. The vendor's methodology page puts the index at over 1.5 billion fills and
roughly 1.6 million markets, with a stated index latency of 15 to 20 seconds, and it is explicit
that three different populations sit behind three different pages: 3.1 million wallets have at
least one fill, 1.85 million clear ten fills and 100 dollars of notional, and the smart-money
rankings use the narrower set with at least ten resolved markets.

The thing that distinguishes it from a raw leaderboard is published exclusion rules. A "Smart
Money" badge requires all three of a per-market win rate at or above 55%, positive total profit
and loss, and not being classified as a farmer or a bot. The classifications are numeric and stated
— farmers by an average buy price above 95 cents, bots by more than 500,000 trades at an average
size under 20 dollars, and four Polymarket protocol router contracts stripped out platform-wide
after one of them surfaced as an apparent insider. Win rates are NegRisk-corrected and profit and
loss is computed FIFO.

Around that sit a set of watching surfaces: a live capital-flow view, a whale consensus feed, a
category browser, an airdrop-eligibility checker, an esports board, an ISW Ukraine frontline
monitor with Telegram alerts, and a weather monitor that lines Polymarket weather prices up against
live ECMWF and GFS model runs and flags events where the two disagree. That last one is a
directional flag by construction, and worth knowing about before it is read as neutral data.

## Availability

Nothing to deposit and no venue account required, so the jurisdiction questions that decide a venue
card do not apply. The terms set no geographic restriction, require you to be at least 18, and
allow one account per person. Browsing needs no account at all; signing in uses Google, an email
magic link or an Ethereum wallet signature, and the privacy policy says private keys and seed
phrases are never requested.

Two details a privacy-conscious reader should have. The site runs Google Analytics and Google Ads
conversion measurement on all pages and Yandex Metrica on its Russian-language pages, and hosting
is with Hetzner in Germany with Cloudflare in front. Billing is handled by Whop for cards and
NOWPayments for crypto, so card and wallet credentials go to those processors rather than to the
vendor.

What the site cannot do is make Polymarket available to you. If the venue does not serve your
country, reading its chain record here changes nothing about that.

Checked against the terms of service and privacy policy on 19 September 2026; the terms carry a
last-updated date of 24 April 2026 and the privacy policy 2 July 2026.

## Pricing

Free is browsable without a card and covers the whale leaderboard with profit-factor sorting, the
market browser, smart-money consensus per market and 20 wallet lookups a day — five without an
account. Pro is 9.99 USD a month and lifts the lookup cap, adds Telegram whale alerts with custom
filters, a 25-wallet watchlist, per-market trade history, farmer and sports filters, personal
profit-and-loss analytics and CSV export. Premium is 19.99 USD a month and is the developer tier:
the REST API at 600 requests a minute, a server-sent whale-trade feed, the indexed trade stream
with MINT/MERGE classification, ISW proximity webhooks and a 100-wallet watchlist.

Both paid tiers advertise an annual price of ten times the month — 99.90 and 199.90 USD — described
on the page as two months free; the figures in the fields above are the month-to-month rates. The
page states cancel-anytime and a seven-day money-back window, and the terms say refunds are handled
case by case and that prices may change on 30 days' notice.

Prices read from the vendor's plan table on 19 September 2026.

## Markets & resolution

Nothing here resolves anything. Every position, fill and outcome is Polymarket's, and Polymarket's
resolution process decides it. The categories the site browses by — geopolitics, crypto, sports,
politics, economics and tech — are its own grouping over whatever Polymarket lists.

Two mechanics matter for reading the numbers. The indexer reads trade events from Polygon blocks
every few seconds and separately tracks the CTF split, merge and redeem operations that move value
in and out of multi-outcome markets; Polymarket's own activity feed is layered on top to fill gaps
and de-duplicated against the chain. And the site distinguishes a netted, NegRisk-corrected
performance layer from a raw per-wallet fill feed, which is the difference between a wallet's
position record and its transaction log.

## Integrations

The REST API is documented with an OpenAPI 3.1 specification, some public endpoints answer without
a key, and Premium raises the limit to 600 requests a minute and unlocks the streaming surfaces.
Streaming is server-sent events rather than a WebSocket.

Five MIT-licensed repositories sit under the vendor's GitHub organisation, which was created on 12
June 2026: an MCP server that pipes whale trades and wallet metrics into an MCP client, an official
Python client, a reference watchlist alert bot for Telegram and Discord, a notebook cookbook for
backtesting copy-trade strategies against the API, and an agent skill file. The most recent push
across them was 21 August 2026 — the site's own repository cards still say "Updated Jun 2026",
which understates them. The service itself is closed source.

An "AI wallet analysis" dossier per wallet and an AI coach over your own profit and loss sit on the
paid tiers; the terms say the service provides no financial advice, no investment recommendations
and no trading signals.

## Limitations

**One venue.** Polymarket only, and by design: the whole product is an index of the Polygon
record. There is no Kalshi coverage, and there cannot be one built this way, because Kalshi is not
on a public chain.

**A wallet is not a person, and the site's own numbers say why that matters.** Its April 2026
audit of 470 million trades reports that six of ten wallets with apparently flawless records were
airdrop farmers. The filter is the product; a reader who takes an unfiltered ranking from anywhere
else is reading the thing the filter exists to remove.

**The implementation is private.** The methodology page publishes the principles and states plainly
that the code and the exact model weights are not published, so the rules are checkable in outline
and not reproducible line by line.

**The terms are unusually restrictive for a data product.** No scraping, no reselling without
written permission, no using the data to train, fine-tune or evaluate machine-learning models
commercial or otherwise, and no building a product that substantially replicates the interface.
The last of those is enforced by a stated intent to pursue DMCA takedowns and civil claims.

**Data is supplied as-is.** The terms disclaim accuracy, completeness and timeliness, and the
15-to-20-second index latency is the vendor's own figure rather than a service-level commitment.

**The weather and frontline monitors flag disagreements between a model and a price.** That is a
directional output on a page otherwise made of settled history, and it is not the same kind of
claim as a wallet's resolved record.

## Alternatives

[Polymarket Analytics](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket-analytics) and [Predicts.guru](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predicts-guru) cover
the same addresses with leaderboards and no farmer-filter documentation.
[Convexly](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/convexly) works the same public record with error bars, pre-registered tests and
published null results, and costs more per wallet. [Polyrama](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polyrama) is the one to look
at if Kalshi has to be in the same view, and it will also place an order.

## FAQ

### What is the farmer filter, and why does it matter?

It excludes wallets whose average buy price sits above 95 cents. Those accounts buy outcomes that are all but decided to harvest a penny of profit at high volume, which produces a high win rate with very little risk and pollutes any raw ranking. OrcaLayer also separates out wallets with more than 500,000 trades and an average trade size under 20 dollars as bots, and strips four Polymarket protocol router contracts that otherwise look like one hyperactive trader.

### Does OrcaLayer need my wallet or a Polymarket account?

No. Everything it shows is read from the public Polygon blockchain, so any address can be looked up without a connection, and the leaderboard, wallet pages and market pages are browsable without signing up. An account exists for watchlists, alerts and API keys; sign-in options are Google, an email link, or a wallet signature.

### Can I build on the data?

Yes, on the Premium tier — a REST API at 600 requests a minute, server-sent event streams for whale trades and indexed fills, and webhooks. Some public endpoints answer without a key. The terms forbid scraping the site, reselling the data without written permission, and using any of it to train or evaluate machine-learning models.

## Background

- [What a temperature market actually settles on](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-temperature-market-settles-on.md) — One named station, a day running midnight to midnight local standard time, and a number the government itself calls preliminary. Not the forecast you watched.

- [What an AI weather model gives you, and what it does not](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-an-ai-weather-model-gives-you.md) — The named models are public, cheap and openly licensed. What they output is a gridded value at fixed hours, which is not what a contract measures.

- [What wallet tracking shows, and what it cannot](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-wallet-tracking-shows.md) — A Polymarket fill is a public transaction and a regulated exchange position is not, so wallet analytics exist on one venue and not the other.

## Also worth comparing

- [Airavat](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/airavat.md) — Trader scoring, filters and paper-trading pods over Polymarket. Invite-only.
- [Convexly](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/convexly.md) — Polymarket wallet diagnostics with published methods, intervals and failed tests.
- [Polysights](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polysights.md) — Polymarket wallet tracking and an insider finder, with the trading terminal behind a code.
- [PolyWallet](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polywallet.md) — Read-only Polymarket wallet tracker with mark-to-market P&L and a CSV export.
- [Predicts.guru](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predicts-guru.md) — Free Polymarket wallet checker, leaderboards and event analytics, no signup.
- [Polymarket Analytics](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket-analytics.md) — Third-party Polymarket wallet, trader and market analytics, free to browse.