# Lumina Markets ForecastEx's economic, political and science contracts in an app of their own, no sports. *https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/lumina-markets · Prediction Market Venues* ## Facts ### At a glance | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Vendor | Lumina Markets | | Category | Prediction Market Venues | | Job | brokered_access | | Website | https://luminamarkets.com | | Pricing model | commission | | Free tier | false | | Open source | false | | Licence | none | | Self-hosted | false | | Tested hands-on | no | | Claimed by vendor | no | | Last updated | 2026-10-23 | ### Availability | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Jurisdictions | us | | Open to US persons | true | | KYC required | true | ### Markets | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Subjects | politics, macro, crypto, science, business | | Settlement | cash | | Resolved by | None of its own — Lumina Markets is an introducing broker; every contract is a ForecastEx contract, resolved by ForecastEx against the source named in that market's rules. | ### Economics | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | Taker fee | 1.175 | | Maker fee | 1.175 | | Other fees | After two free withdrawals a month, IBKR charges $1 ACH, $4 check, $10 wire; ForecastEx keeps 0.50% a year of collateral interest before the coupon. | | Liquidity model | clob | | Platforms | web, ios, android | | AI features | none | ### Interfaces | Field | Value | | --- | --- | | API | false | | WebSocket | false | | Scripting | none | | Python | false | | MCP server | false | | Export | csv, pdf | ### Capabilities Yes: charting, live_trading, portfolio_tracking, tax_reporting No: screening, order_book, backtesting, automation, paper_trading, calibration_scoring, cross_venue, alerts, news, copy_trading *Verified: pricing 2026-10-23; availability 2026-10-23; economics 2026-10-23; markets 2026-10-23; capabilities 2026-10-23.* ## What it is Lumina Markets is a web and mobile app for trading event contracts listed on [ForecastEx](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/forecastex), the CFTC-designated exchange and clearing house that Interactive Brokers Group owns. It launched on **19 October 2026**, by the company's own release, which says it offers no sports contracts and "no gamification mechanics". **Three parties sit behind the button**, and Lumina's footer names all of them: - **Lumina Markets Inc.**, a Delaware corporation in New York and the firm you deal with: a CFTC-registered introducing broker and NFA member, NFA ID 0576536. Its terms say it does not hold customer funds, carry accounts or execute trades. - **Interactive Brokers LLC**, the futures commission merchant that carries and clears every account. Opening a Lumina account opens an Interactive Brokers account; identity checks, custody, deposits, withdrawals, statements and tax forms are all Interactive Brokers'. - **ForecastEx LLC**, the exchange. Every order goes there and nowhere else. **The ownership is the part to read before the fees.** Lumina's Material Conflict of Interest Disclosure (version 2, effective 14 October 2026) says Thomas Peterffy, chairman of Interactive Brokers Group, is also Lumina's chairman and majority shareholder, holding about 80% of it through Conyers Investments LLC, and holds 74.2% of the voting interest in Interactive Brokers Group. "The same individual who controls Lumina Markets (your introducing broker) also controls the FCM that clears your trades and the exchange on which your trades are executed." Lumina is therefore not a subsidiary of the listed group; the help centre's phrase is "affiliated companies under common ownership". The launch release says Peterffy invested in a personal capacity. The disclosure adds that Lumina does not evaluate other clearing firms or exchanges, and that its revenue is tied entirely to the number and value of trades. What Lumina adds is the layer in between: a consumer app for an exchange that does not take individuals as members, its own commission, and a feed, search and watchlist built around the contracts. The contract mechanics, the bid-pairing model and the rulebook are the exchange's, and they are on the [ForecastEx card](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/forecastex). ## Availability **US residents aged 21 and over, and nobody else.** The Terms of Use (version 1, effective 2 September 2026) require a US resident of at least 21 who does not live where the platform or a particular contract is prohibited, and say access to specific contracts may be restricted by state of residence, by ForecastEx's participation requirements, by Interactive Brokers' account restrictions or by law. No state list is published. The privacy article says location is checked at sign-in and at order submission, from the IP address and, with permission, the device's precise location. Every applicant gives a Social Security number and employment details. Interactive Brokers runs the identity, anti-money-laundering and bank checks; most applicants are verified electronically, and the rest upload an ID and proof of address. The terms forbid using automated systems, bots or scripts on the platform without written consent. Read 2026-10-23. ## Pricing **The vendor's unit: $0.01 a contract to the exchange, plus 0.35% of the trade value to Lumina, on every execution.** The Fee Disclosure (version 2, effective 14 October 2026) and the Fees and costs article agree: - **ForecastEx transaction fee** — $0.01 per contract, per side, charged at execution whatever the contract later does. Lumina receives a quarter of it ($0.0025) back from ForecastEx as a rebate, which comes out of the cent and is not added to it. - **Lumina's commission** — 0.35% of the contract price times the number of contracts, on each buy and each sell, on top of the exchange fee. Interactive Brokers keeps a portion of it. Because it is a share of the price, it is never more than 0.35¢ a contract. **Why the fee fields read 1.175.** At 50¢ the commission is 0.35% × 50¢ = 0.175¢, and the exchange fee is 1¢, so a contract costs 1.175¢ to buy or sell, which is 1.175% of the $1 payout. Lumina's own worked examples check out the same way: 100 contracts at 40¢ is $1.00 plus $0.14, and 100 at 60¢ is $1.00 plus $0.21. Nothing distinguishes a resting order from a taking one, so both fields hold the same figure. Holding to settlement pays once; selling before resolution is a second execution and pays again. A cancelled market refunds the contract price but not the fees. The exchange cent dominates at every price: at 10¢ a contract costs 1.035¢, a tenth of the price, and at 90¢ it costs 1.315¢. [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi), whose taker fee is a curve that peaks at 1.75¢ at 50¢, costs more in the middle of the range and much less near the edges. **Charges off the fill.** No account, inactivity or deposit fee. The first two withdrawals each calendar month are free; after that Interactive Brokers charges $1.00 for ACH, $4.00 for a check and $10.00 for a wire, and Lumina receives none of it. On the other side of the ledger, open positions accrue ForecastEx's incentive coupon daily, paid monthly, on both the Yes and the No side, at a rate tied to the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Since 17 August 2026 ForecastEx withholds an administrative clearing fee of 0.50% a year from the collateral's interest rate before the coupon is paid, keeping all of it when the rate is below that; Lumina takes nothing from the coupon. The current rate is shown in the app, not on the public pages. Read 2026-10-23. ## Markets & resolution The app's sections on 23 October 2026 were finance, economy, crypto, climate, politics, tech and science, and education. In practice that meant Fed, Bank of Canada and ECB decisions, CPI, index and commodity futures settlements, crypto price ranges, the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential race, hurricane counts and emissions, AI model rankings and fusion milestones, and university tuition. There is no sports market, by the company's own statement. Lumina resolves nothing. Its help centre says ForecastEx determines each outcome against the source named in that market's rules, publishes a notice when a resolution is delayed or under review, and refunds the contract price if a market cannot be resolved. Settlement runs daily at 1:00 PM Central: contracts resolved before noon Central settle that day, later ones the next day. Lumina's fee disclosure and help centre price contracts from $0.02 to $0.99 and say the bounds are set by exchange rules; ForecastEx's rulebook (version of 22 September 2026) lets bids run from $0.01 to $0.99, and Lumina does not say why its floor is a cent higher. You cannot hold Yes and No in the same market: opposing positions are offset and credited $1.00 a pair. Orders are market or limit, with limit orders good for the day or until cancelled. ## Integrations None. Lumina publishes no API, and its terms forbid automated access without written consent. Activity statements, trade confirmations and Interactive Brokers' tax forms (1099, 1099-R, 1042-S, 8949) download from the app's Reports screen as PDF, HTML or CSV, which is why the tax and export flags are on. Price charts run from six hours to all time with volume alongside. ## Limitations - **One exchange, one clearing firm, one owner.** Orders go only to ForecastEx and clear only through Interactive Brokers, both under the control of Lumina's majority shareholder, and Lumina says it does not look at alternatives on your behalf. - **A commission on top of the exchange fee.** The 0.35% is small in cents, and it is Lumina's own layer: the same contracts are reachable through other brokers on their own terms, which this card has not priced. - **The flat cent is heavy on cheap contracts.** At 10¢ the fee is a tenth of the price. - **US residents only, and no state list.** Contracts can be restricted by state without notice in the terms. - **No API and no automation.** - **Only what ForecastEx lists.** No sports, and liquidity is ForecastEx's book, which the help centre itself warns can be thin. - **Nobody here has funded an account.** Everything above is read from Lumina's site, help centre, Terms of Use, Fee Disclosure and Conflict of Interest Disclosure, and its launch release, on 23 October 2026. ## Alternatives [ForecastEx](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/forecastex) is the exchange itself, reached through Interactive Brokers' ForecastTrader or through [Robinhood](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/robinhood-prediction-markets), which routes part of its event-contract flow there. [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi) has a direct account, an API and a far larger list, sports included; [tastytrade](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/tastytrade-prediction-markets) resells Kalshi's macro contracts inside a brokerage account at a flat $0.02. The [US event-contract venues head-to-head](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/us-event-contract-venues) sets the regulated US venues side by side. ## FAQ ### Is Lumina Markets an exchange? No. Lumina Markets Inc. is a CFTC-registered introducing broker and NFA member (NFA ID 0576536). It introduces every order to Interactive Brokers LLC, which carries the account and clears as futures commission merchant, and every contract is listed, traded and resolved on ForecastEx, which Interactive Brokers Group owns. ### What does a trade on Lumina cost? Two charges at execution, on each buy and each sell. ForecastEx's transaction fee of $0.01 a contract, and Lumina's commission of 0.35% of the trade value. At 50¢ that is 1.175¢ a contract; on Lumina's own example, 100 contracts at 40¢, it is $1.00 plus $0.14. ### Is Lumina owned by Interactive Brokers? Not by the listed company. Lumina's conflicts disclosure says Thomas Peterffy holds about 80% of Lumina through Conyers Investments LLC, and also holds 74.2% of the voting interest in Interactive Brokers Group, which owns ForecastEx. Lumina calls itself and Interactive Brokers affiliated companies under common ownership. ### Who can open a Lumina account? US residents aged 21 and over. Identity checks are run by Interactive Brokers, and Lumina's terms say individual contracts may be restricted by state of residence. Your location is checked at sign-in and when you submit an order. ### Does Lumina pay interest on open positions? ForecastEx does. Open positions accrue an incentive coupon daily, paid monthly, on both sides of a market, at a rate tied to the Effective Federal Funds Rate. Since 17 August 2026 ForecastEx withholds 0.50% a year from that rate first; Lumina takes nothing from the coupon. ## Background - [Event contract or swap, and why the label decides the case](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/event-contract-vs-swap.md) — Whether an event contract is a swap under the Commodity Exchange Act decides whether a state may regulate it. Three circuits have read it, and they divide. - [How a venue changes its rules, and where you can see it coming](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-a-venue-changes-its-rules.md) — A US exchange's rule changes wait ten business days in public; a fee under a dollar a contract need not. Broker fees and offshore terms change when posted. - [How much one account may hold, and what happens past the line](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-much-one-account-may-hold.md) — Position limits and accountability levels sound alike and work differently. Where each venue draws the line, in which unit, and what happens past it. ## Also worth comparing - [Coinbase Prediction Markets](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/coinbase-prediction-markets.md) — Kalshi's event contracts in the Coinbase app, via Coinbase's own FCM, in USD or USDC. - [DraftKings Predictions](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/draftkings-predictions.md) — DraftKings' event-contract app, brokered by its own FCM onto DKeX, Crypto.com and CME. - [Fanatics Markets](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fanatics-markets.md) — Fanatics' event-contract app, an FCM in front of Crypto.com's exchange, in 22 states. - [FanDuel Predicts](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fanduel-predicts.md) — FanDuel's event-contract app, via an FCM co-owned with CME Group, onto CME and Crypto.com. - [moomoo Prediction Markets](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/moomoo-prediction-markets.md) — Kalshi's event contracts inside a moomoo margin account, with order entry through its API. - [Public Prediction Markets](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/public-prediction-markets.md) — Kalshi's economic, political and company contracts inside a Public brokerage account.