# Confido

Open-source forecasting workspace you host yourself, with a Brier score pointing upwards.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/confido · Forecasting Platforms*

## Facts

### At a glance

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Vendor | Confido Institute |
| Category | Forecasting Platforms |
| Job | calibration |
| Website | https://confido.institute |
| Pricing model | open-source |
| Free tier | true |
| Open source | true |
| Licence | AGPL-3.0 |
| Self-hosted | true |
| Tested hands-on | false |
| Last updated | 2026-09-19 |

### Availability

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Jurisdictions | global |
| Open to US persons | true |
| KYC required | false |

### Markets

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Subjects | politics, macro, business, sports, culture |
| Settlement | play_money |
| Resolved by | Whoever runs the workspace resolves the question, and a prediction counts only if it was submitted before the score time configured in that question's schedule. |

### Economics

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Taker fee | none |
| Maker fee | none |
| Liquidity model | none |
| Platforms | web |
| AI features | none |

### Interfaces

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| API | false |
| WebSocket | false |
| Scripting | none |
| Python | false |
| MCP server | false |
| Export | csv |

### Capabilities

Yes: charting, calibration_scoring

No: screening, order_book, backtesting, automation, live_trading, paper_trading, portfolio_tracking, cross_venue, alerts, news, tax_reporting

*Verified: pricing 2026-09-19; availability 2026-09-19; markets 2026-09-19; capabilities 2026-09-19.*

## What it is

Forecasting software you run rather than a site you join. Confido is a workspace — rooms, members
and questions — built by the Confido Institute, a non-profit whose stated subject is uncertainty
communication rather than forecasting competition. You invite the people you want, ask questions
they can quantify, and the app collects probabilities and distributions, aggregates them, resolves
them and scores them.

Three question types, and the second and third are what mark it out from the rest of this
category. **Forecasting questions** are the usual thing: an outcome nobody knows yet with a clear
resolution later. **Knowledge questions** have an answer that already exists, so a group can
practise calibration and find out immediately how overconfident it was. **Implicit belief
questions** — will venue A suit us better than venue B — never resolve at all, and exist to get a
distribution of opinion out of a room without the first speaker anchoring everybody else. That
last one is not forecasting and the institute does not claim it is; it is why the product's other
listed use is running meetings.

**The score is a rescaled Brier that points upwards, and this is the first thing to get straight.**
The code computes `(0.25 − (outcome − p)²) × 4`: the range is −3 to 1, a 50% forecast scores 0,
and higher is better. Every other Brier score in this catalogue is lower-is-better. A Confido
score is not comparable with a Metaculus, Good Judgment Open or Fatebook number without
converting it, and the sign convention will catch anybody who skims.

Automatic scoring is **binary questions only** — ask for a numeric range and the scoring function
returns nothing. The institute says as much in its own tournament guide and tells you to export
the CSV and compute your own. Calibration curves are computed separately and are the feature the
personal-use documentation is built around.

## Availability

There is no public instance to sign up to, and that is deliberate rather than an omission. The
website offers a demo instance and a contact form; the supported route is building and running the
app yourself, which the repository documents as a Gradle build whose `run` task serves the
compiled front end on port 8080. The institute's second selling point, after ease of use, is that
running it locally gives you full control of the data — pitched at government and large
institutional users.

So the answer to "can I use this" is not a jurisdiction question at all. There is no account, no
identity check, no geoblock and nothing to deposit, and also nowhere to join: somebody has to host
it first.

## Pricing

Free, released under AGPL-3.0, with no paid tier advertised anywhere on the site. The institute is
a non-profit and also sells nothing on the page — workshops and calibration trainings are the
other half of what it does, arranged through a contact form.

Note what AGPL-3.0 means if you are considering this for an employer: a modified version offered
to users over a network has to be offered as source. That is the strictest licence on any card in
this category, and it is a deliberate choice by a non-profit rather than an accident.

## Markets & resolution

There is no question supply. The questions are whichever ones your workspace writes, which the
institute's own material illustrates across a wide spread — a geopolitical question with a 2030
horizon, an internal promotion, a venue choice, and a run of personal questions about whether you
will be glad you went to the party.

Resolution is administrative: whoever runs the room enters the outcome. The part worth knowing is
the **score time**, a field in a question's schedule. A prediction is scored only if it was
submitted before that moment, which is how the app stops somebody forecasting after the answer is
obvious. Three conditions have to hold for a prediction to appear on the scoreboard at all: the
question must be resolved, it must have a score time configured, and the prediction must predate
it. A room with sloppy schedules produces an empty scoreboard rather than a wrong one.

## Integrations

None, in the sense this catalogue usually means. There is no public API, no SDK and no webhook —
the scoreboard endpoint the front end calls is internal. What there is, is a CSV export of
predictions, which the institute's own guidance treats as the escape hatch for everything its
automatic scoring does not cover.

The rest of the integration story is that you have the source. It is Kotlin multiplatform, AGPL,
and about five megabytes of repository.

## Limitations

**The maintenance signal is the weak one.** The most recent commit on the default branch when this
card was written was 1 September 2025 — over a year old — against 111 commits in total, and the
build still declares itself version `1.0-SNAPSHOT`. The website and the institute are active; the
code is not moving fast.

Scoring is thin next to the platforms in this category that make scoring the product. One
rescaled Brier for binary questions, no peer or relative score, no leaderboard beyond a per-room
scoreboard, and nothing for numeric questions. If what you want is a record that travels, this is
not it; if what you want is your organisation's own forecasters ranked against each other on your
own questions, it is exactly it.

And there is nothing to evaluate without deploying it. You cannot read a live question set, check
a public track record or see how well its users are calibrated, because by design none of that is
public anywhere.

## Alternatives

[Fatebook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fatebook) is the hosted version of the same idea — private questions, Brier and
relative Brier, a Slack app — if you can accept somebody else holding the data.
[Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) is open source too and sells private instances as a service, which
is the commercial answer to the same requirement. [Prediki](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/prediki) sells confidential
questions on a hosted platform by the seat, if a purchase order is easier for you than a server.

## FAQ

### Is there a public Confido instance I can just join?

No. There is a demo instance and a contact form, and the supported route is running the app yourself — it is a Kotlin multiplatform application you build with Gradle and which then serves the front end and listens on port 8080. That is the point of it — the institute's pitch is that your data never leaves your server.

### How does Confido's score relate to an ordinary Brier score?

It is a rescaling and it points the other way. The code computes (0.25 − (outcome − p)²) × 4, which runs from −3 to 1, sits at 0 for a 50% forecast, and is higher-is-better. An ordinary Brier score is lower-is-better, so the two numbers are not interchangeable and the sign convention alone will mislead you.

### Does Confido score numeric questions?

No. Automatic scoring covers yes/no questions only — the scoring function returns nothing for a numeric answer space. The institute's own guidance is to export the results as CSV and compute whatever score you want yourself.

### Who is behind Confido?

The Confido Institute, a non-profit research institute founded in July 2022 to work on uncertainty communication, after a first round of forecasting experiments in April 2022. The app is released under AGPL-3.0.

## Background

- [How accurate a prediction market's price actually is](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-accurate-the-price-is.md) — What research establishes about reading 73 cents as a 73% chance — where market prices are calibrated, the deviations that recur, and what the horizon does.
- [Scientific and government forecast hubs](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/scientific-forecast-hubs.md) — Public-health agencies run open, scored forecast hubs anyone can join. The unit of submission is a model, not a person, and nothing there is a personal record.
- [What a forecasting platform's score actually measures](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-forecasting-score-measures.md) — Proper rules, the two Brier conventions that differ by a factor of two, crowd-relative scores that do not travel between sites, and why profit is not accuracy.

## Also worth comparing

- [Fatebook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/fatebook.md) — Write down what you think will happen, in Slack or a browser, and get scored on it.
- [Quantified Intuitions](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/quantified-intuitions.md) — Forecast questions that already resolved, and learn in ninety seconds how wrong you were.
- [Good Judgment Open](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/good-judgment-open.md) — Brier scores against the crowd, and the recruiting ground for Superforecasters.
- [Hypermind](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/hypermind.md) — Play money, a real order book, and a few thousand euro of prizes split by performance.
- [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold.md) — Anyone can open a question, anyone can take a side, and the currency buys nothing.
- [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus.md) — Proper scoring and public track records on questions nobody can take a position in.

## Named as a replacement for

- [PredictionBook](https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/predictionbook.md)