# How to track a Polymarket wallet's positions

Five ways to read one address's open positions and trade history — and why two of them print a different profit figure for the same wallet.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/how-to/track-a-wallets-positions · next to Prediction Market Analytics & Dashboards*

**Answer:** On Polymarket an address's fills settle on a public chain, so any wallet can be read without permission: paste it into a free checker, or index the chain yourself. Pick by what you need after the number — a figure to glance at, a record re-read on a schedule, or a definition you can argue with. On a regulated exchange the same task is not available at all, because per-account positions go to the regulator rather than to the public.

## The approaches, in order

1. [Predicts.guru](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predicts-guru.md) — Free, no account and no wallet connection — paste an address for realised and open profit, win rate, positions and the full trade history.
2. [PolyWallet](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polywallet.md) — The watchlist version — five addresses free, open positions marked against live Polymarket prices, and a daily profit-and-loss calendar.
3. [OrcaLayer](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/orcalayer.md) — Indexes Polygon itself and publishes its exclusion thresholds as numbers; 20 lookups a day free, REST and an MCP server on the top tier.
4. [Convexly](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/convexly.md) — Meters the re-read rather than the look — a full read rebuilt from the settlement record, anchored to a block, with unread rows marked as unread.
5. [Polymarket dashboards on Dune](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/dune-polymarket-dashboards.md) — SQL over the same chain, free to read and fork, for when you need the definition behind a number rather than the number.

*Ordered editorially. Paid placement does not affect this order.*

## The short way

Paste the address. That is genuinely the whole of it for one look, and it works because of how
Polymarket is built rather than because a vendor was generous: the exchange's own repository
describes a model in which an operator matches orders off-chain while settlement happens on-chain,
non-custodially, swapping conditional-token assets against a collateral token. The executed swaps
are public transactions on Polygon. Every product below is reading the same events.

[Predicts.guru](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predicts-guru) is the cheapest place to start, because there is nothing to
start: no account, no signup, no wallet connection, no paid tier. Paste a Polygon address or search
a Polymarket username and you get realised and open profit, ROI, win rate, volume, open and closed
positions, the markets traded and the full trade history, with a comparison view for up to ten
addresses side by side. Its own home page counters put the corpus at roughly 3.2 million wallets,
1.88 billion trades and 604 million positions.

If you want the same address again next week rather than once, that is a different purchase, and
the two things being sold are **how often you may look** and **how often the product re-reads**.
Those are not the same product at the same price, and picking the wrong one is the usual mistake
here. The section below is ordered by that distinction rather than by price.

One thing to be clear about before any of it: what you are reading is a record of what an account
did. This page is about getting that record right, and nothing in it is a reason to do the same
thing.

## What the options are

[PolyWallet](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polywallet) is the small end and does one job. You paste a public address — its
FAQ states plainly that the service is read-only and that no private keys, signatures or wallet
connections are involved — and it syncs that address's trades, positions and balances, marks open
positions against live Polymarket prices, and lays the result out as daily, weekly and monthly
profit and loss with a calendar heatmap. Five tracked wallets are free; Premium at 9.99 USD a month
raises that to 500, turns on live unrealised profit and loss, and unlocks CSV export. The mark is
the honest part: the vendor says it uses mark-to-market arithmetic that matches what Polymarket
itself shows, which makes the unrealised figure a quote of the venue rather than a model of it.

[OrcaLayer](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/orcalayer) indexes Polygon itself rather than consuming somebody else's
leaderboard, and it is the one that publishes what it throws away. Its methodology page classifies
a farmer numerically — an address whose average buy price sits above 95 cents — and a bot at more
than 500,000 trades averaging under 20 dollars, states that four Polymarket protocol router
contracts are stripped platform-wide, and says win rate is measured over resolved markets rather
than fills, NegRisk-corrected, with profit and loss computed first-in, first-out. Twenty wallet
lookups a day are free with an account and five without; Pro at 9.99 USD a month lifts the cap and
adds Telegram alerts, a 25-wallet watchlist and CSV; Premium at 19.99 USD is the developer tier,
with REST at 600 requests a minute, server-sent trade streams and an MCP server. Its terms forbid
reselling the data and forbid using it to train or evaluate machine-learning models.

[Convexly](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/convexly) sells the part that actually costs, which is re-reading one address's
full record on a schedule. The first check needs no signup; Watchlist at 9 USD a month covers three
wallets re-read every 30 days, Researcher at 49 USD covers ten and adds on-chain reconciliation and
an API, and Trader at 499 USD covers fifty re-read weekly. The distinctive artefact is the 19 USD
one-time read: a single reconciled read of one named address, delivered with the block it was
reconciled at, a hash over that subset and the command that re-derives it against any Polygon
archive node, refundable within 14 days. Its methods index carries 27 methodology papers, 15
registered forward tests and 4 published negative results — including one about its own instrument.

[Polymarket dashboards on Dune](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/dune-polymarket-dashboards) are the option where you stop
taking anyone's word for the arithmetic. Reading and forking any public dashboard is free on a
view-only account, and every chart can be opened as SQL, so when a number looks wrong you can find
out what it was measuring instead of emailing support. The costs are freshness and licence: these
are batch-indexed reads minutes to hours behind the chain, the free plan cannot schedule a query at
all, scheduled queries expire after three months on Analyst, and the data licence is internal use
only below Enterprise.

## Where this breaks

**A profit figure is a calculation with an exclusion rule behind it, and most of these do not
publish theirs.** The clearest evidence is an accident: four products in this category print a
corpus counter on the landing page, and the wallet counts agree while the market counts do not.
[Polysights](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polysights) says 160,722 markets, OrcaLayer roughly 1.6 million,
[Airavat](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/airavat) over 2.2 million — a factor of thirteen over one venue's history, and
none of them publishes whether it is counting a question, a binary outcome pair or one leg of a
multi-outcome set. Anything computed *per market*, a win rate first among them, is computed over a
denominator these products do not define the same way.
[Who publishes the rule behind the label](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/polymarket-wallet-analytics) grades all five on
exactly this.

**Unrealised and realised are two different claims, and an open position is marked at somebody's
price.** A realised figure needs lot matching, and FIFO is a choice rather than the only one. An
unrealised figure is the venue's current price applied to a position nobody has closed — fine on a
liquid market, a quote rather than a valuation on a thin one. And splitting, merging or redeeming
conditional tokens moves value in and out of a position with no trade to attribute it to, so the
question to put to any product is whether its pipeline watches fills, balances, or both. A number
without that answer is not comparable to another number without it.

**The history you are reading may be a window rather than a record.** This is the failure that
looks exactly like success, and the only public measurement of it comes from a vendor measuring
itself: Convexly's study of 8,656 Polymarket wallets reports that 3,268 of them — 37.8 percent —
sat at exactly 2,000 fills, the cap on the trade history it had pulled, and that capped wallets
lost a median of 46.9 percent of their resolution coverage against 20.8 percent for uncapped ones.
It withdrew an earlier top-100 audit on the same ground, because 85 of its 100 published rows sat
at the cap and therefore described a window. Convexly marks each row as a full read or a
recent-trade window; nothing else here prints a completeness ratio, so on every other product the
honest reading is "incomplete by an unstated amount".

**One person is not one address, and one address is not one person.** Polymarket separates the
profile address that holds funds from the key that signs, splitting size across addresses costs
nothing, and a fund, a shared account or a bot acting for subscribers all print as a single row.
The population is not clean either: OrcaLayer's April 2026 audit of 470 million trades found that
six of ten wallets with apparently flawless records were airdrop farmers, accounts buying
near-certain outcomes to harvest a cent.
[What wallet tracking shows, and what it cannot](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-wallet-tracking-shows) is the page
for where that boundary sits — and it is a boundary about people, which is why the sentence the
record supports stops at "this account established this position at this time".

**A deposit is not a profit.** Collateral arriving at an address is a transfer; so is collateral
leaving it. Either can move a balance without anything having been won or lost, which is why a
balance-shaped number and a trading-result-shaped number have to be read as different fields even
when a screen puts them in the same column.

**And this page exists for Polymarket because the same task is not available elsewhere.** A
CFTC-regulated exchange publishes market statistics; the per-account layer goes to the regulator,
under a rule that requires each futures commission merchant, clearing member and foreign broker to
submit a report to the Commission for each business day. So there is no public per-account ledger
on [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi) for anyone to index, and no product can build one. What you can read
there is your own account, through your own credentials.

## If you outgrow this

If the question changes from "what did this address do" to "is this record distinguishable from
luck", you have left this page: that is a comparison of methods rather than a lookup, and
[the five wallet analytics products compared](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/polymarket-wallet-analytics) is where the
published exclusion rules, the error bars and the absences sit side by side.

If you need the record programmatically rather than on a screen, two of the five publish an
interface: OrcaLayer's REST, server-sent streams and MCP server on its 19.99 USD tier, and
Convexly's API from its 49 USD tier under a daily row quota. Predicts.guru and PolyWallet publish
none, so their ceiling is what you can read off a page or, on PolyWallet's paid tier, export as
CSV. Check the licence in the same sitting: OrcaLayer forbids resale and model training, Convexly's
self-serve licence covers one named individual and forbids republishing its output to third
parties, and Dune is internal use only below Enterprise. A research workflow that quietly becomes a
product is a licence problem before it is a data problem.

If a position's *value* is what you are really chasing, the open half of a wallet page is only as
good as the resolution behind it — [who decides the outcome](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/who-decides-the-outcome)
covers the process that turns an open position into a settled one, and it is where the surprises
live. And if the address you are reading trades somewhere else as well, nothing above will see it:
[tools that cover more than one venue](https://predictionmarkets.tools/collections/cross-venue) is the listing, and
[analytics and dashboards](https://predictionmarkets.tools/categories/analytics-dashboards) is the full set of products that read
this record for you.

## FAQ

### Do I need permission from the wallet owner, or a wallet connection of my own?

Neither. Polymarket's exchange matches off-chain and settles on-chain non-custodially, so the executed swaps are public transactions and any address can be looked up by anyone. Predicts.guru and PolyWallet both say in their own words that you paste a public address and that no key, signature or wallet connection is involved. Connecting a wallet on these products claims an address as yours; it is not how you read somebody else's.

### Can I do this on Kalshi?

No, and not because nobody built it. A CFTC-regulated exchange publishes market statistics, while per-account position reports are submitted to the Commission for each business day under 17 CFR 17.00. There is no public per-account ledger to index. On a regulated venue the only positions you can read are your own, through your own credentials.

### Why do two trackers show different profit for the same address?

Because they are computing different things from the same events. Realised profit and an unrealised mark answer different questions; lot matching may be FIFO or something else; multi-outcome markets need a correction not everyone applies; and splitting, merging or redeeming conditional tokens moves value with no trade to attribute it to. OrcaLayer publishes FIFO and a NegRisk correction. Most publish neither.

### Does a wallet page tell me who the trader is?

No, and none of these products claims it does. What the record supports is that an address established a position of a stated size at a stated time and that it was worth something at resolution. One person can run several addresses and one address can serve a fund, a shared account or a bot acting for subscribers. A row is an account with a record on one venue over one window.

### How far back does a wallet's history go?

Further than a pipeline may have read. Convexly's own 8,656-wallet study reports that 3,268 of those wallets — 37.8 percent — sat at exactly 2,000 fills, the cap on the trade history it pulled, so each of those rows described a window rather than a record. Ask any product whether the read completed before you read anything off it.

## Sources

1. [Methodology](https://orcalayer.com/methodology) — OrcaLayer, read 2026-09-21
2. [Methods and evidence index](https://www.convexly.app/methods) — Convexly, read 2026-09-21
3. [10,000 Polymarket wallets scored — calibration barely predicts profit](https://www.convexly.app/research/polymarket-10k-wallet-study) — Convexly, read 2026-09-21
4. [PolyWallet product page and FAQ](https://polywallet.app/) — PolyWallet, read 2026-09-21
5. [Predicts.guru wallet checker](https://www.predicts.guru/) — Predicts.guru, read 2026-09-21
6. [Polymarket CTF Exchange, repository README](https://github.com/Polymarket/ctf-exchange) — Polymarket, read 2026-09-21
7. [17 CFR 17.00, Information to be furnished by futures commission merchants, clearing members and foreign brokers](https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/CFR-2025-title17-vol1/xml/CFR-2025-title17-vol1-sec17-00.xml) — U.S. Government Publishing Office, Code of Federal Regulations, 2025-04-01

*Last updated 2026-09-21. A reference page, corrected in place — not a dated post.*