# Prediction market profit calculator, held to resolution

What a position held to resolution leaves you after the fill fee, any settlement fee and the withdrawal, on six venues, each leg from its own document.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/calculators/prediction-market-profit · next to Prediction Market Venues*

**Answer:** On most regulated venues the fee on the fill is the whole cost: 100 Kalshi contracts bought at 50 cents cost 51.75 dollars, a win pays 100, and an ACH withdrawal is free. PredictIt charges nothing on the fill but takes 10 percent of the profit, and withdrawing from an active account is free, so the same win reaches your bank as 95 dollars. The calculator adds all three legs at your price, size and outcome.

The calculator itself is interactive at https://predictionmarkets.tools/calculators/prediction-market-profit. These are the rates it multiplies, each with the document it was read from:

## Rates

| Rate | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Kalshi — Standard series, fee on the fill, taker | round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Kalshi — Standard series, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Kalshi — Series listed with maker fees, fee on the fill, taker | round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Kalshi — Series listed with maker fees, fee on the fill, maker | round up(0.0175 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Kalshi — Combination markets, fee on the fill, taker | round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Kalshi — Combination markets, fee on the fill, maker | round up(0.035 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Kalshi, fee on the fill, source | Kalshi Fee Schedule for July 2026, 7.7.26 Update — https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (dated 2026-07-07, read 2026-09-20) |
| Kalshi, at settlement | none (Zero for a simple yes-or-no determination; a fee may apply only to sub-cent scalar settlement) |
| Kalshi, at settlement, source | Kalshi Fee Schedule for July 2026, 7.7.26 Update — https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (dated 2026-07-07, read 2026-09-20) |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Bank transfer (ACH), US accounts | free (ACH withdrawals are free) |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Bank transfer (ACH), US accounts, source | Kalshi Fee Schedule for July 2026, 7.7.26 Update — https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (dated 2026-07-07, read 2026-09-20) |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Crypto, after a prior crypto deposit | not modelled — No Kalshi fee, but the processor charges its own, disclosed before the transaction and published as no rate. |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Crypto, after a prior crypto deposit, source | Kalshi help centre, Crypto Withdrawals — https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823804-crypto-withdrawals (read 2026-09-21) |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Debit card | not modelled — The fee schedule prices debit card deposits, at up to 2%, and states no figure for debit card withdrawals. |
| Kalshi, withdrawal by Debit card, source | Kalshi Fee Schedule for July 2026, 7.7.26 Update — https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf (dated 2026-07-07, read 2026-09-20) |
| Kalshi, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Bank transfer (ACH), US accounts | outlay $51.75, you keep $100.00 |
| Kalshi, left out | Kalshi reserves the right to charge 0% to 2% on any rail; nothing is charged under it today, so it is not modelled. Wire withdrawals are documented as unavailable below $500,000. |
| Polymarket — Crypto, fee on the fill, taker | 0.07 × C × P × (1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Polymarket — Crypto, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Polymarket — Sports, fee on the fill, taker | 0.05 × C × P × (1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Polymarket — Sports, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Polymarket — Economics, culture, weather, other, fee on the fill, taker | 0.05 × C × P × (1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Polymarket — Economics, culture, weather, other, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Polymarket — Finance, politics, mentions, tech, fee on the fill, taker | 0.04 × C × P × (1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Polymarket — Finance, politics, mentions, tech, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Polymarket — Geopolitics, fee on the fill, taker | not charged |
| Polymarket — Geopolitics, fee on the fill, maker | not charged |
| Polymarket, fee on the fill, source | Polymarket documentation, Fees — https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees (read 2026-09-19) |
| Polymarket, at settlement | not modelled — A winning share redeems for a dollar of collateral. The fee documentation charges takers on fills and states no charge for redeeming; whether the redeem transaction costs gas depends on the wallet. |
| Polymarket, at settlement, source | Polymarket documentation, Fees — https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees (read 2026-09-19) |
| Polymarket, withdrawal by Bridge out to another token or chain | not modelled — Polymarket charges nothing to withdraw, but the bridge prices each withdrawal as a live quote. The documentation’s own example takes $10 to $9.94: 2¢ of gas, a 0.3% bridge fee, 0.1% fill cost and 0.05% swap impact. An example is not a rate. |
| Polymarket, withdrawal by Bridge out to another token or chain, source | Polymarket documentation, bridge Quote — https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/bridge/quote (read 2026-09-21) |
| Polymarket, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Bridge out to another token or chain | outlay $51.00, you keep at most $100.00, before any settlement cost and the withdrawal cost |
| Polymarket, left out | The on-ramp that bought the stablecoin, and any exchange the reader moves it to afterwards, charge on their own schedules. |
| Polymarket US — All markets except table tennis and combos, fee on the fill, taker | round(0.0695 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent, half to even |
| Polymarket US — All markets except table tennis and combos, fee on the fill, maker | round(-0.0125 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent, half to even |
| Polymarket US — Table tennis, from 7 October 2026, fee on the fill, taker | round(0.1 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent, half to even |
| Polymarket US — Table tennis, from 7 October 2026, fee on the fill, maker | round(-0.0125 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent, half to even |
| Polymarket US, fee on the fill, source | Polymarket US documentation, Fees — https://docs.polymarket.us/fees (dated 2026-09-25, read 2026-09-19) |
| Polymarket US, at settlement | none (Winning contracts settle at $1.00 and the fee schedule charges fills only) |
| Polymarket US, at settlement, source | Polymarket US documentation, Market Settlement — https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/markets/contract-settlement (read 2026-10-07) |
| Polymarket US, withdrawal by Card, ACH, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo or USDC, to the source that funded it | free (Withdrawals are documented as free) |
| Polymarket US, withdrawal by Card, ACH, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo or USDC, to the source that funded it, source | Polymarket US documentation, Withdraw funds: Overview — https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/deposits/withdraw-funds/overview (read 2026-10-07) |
| Polymarket US, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Card, ACH, Apple Pay, PayPal, Venmo or USDC, to the source that funded it | outlay $51.74, you keep $100.00 |
| Polymarket US, left out | Wire withdrawals are not offered in the app. Only deposits that have fully cleared, typically three to four business days, can be withdrawn. |
| Gemini Predictions — Contracts listed on or after 18 March 2026, fee on the fill, taker | round up(0.07 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Gemini Predictions — Contracts listed on or after 18 March 2026, fee on the fill, maker | round up(0.0175 × C × P × (1 − P)) to the cent |
| Gemini Predictions — Contracts listed before 18 March 2026, fee on the fill, taker | 0.05 × C × min(P, 1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Gemini Predictions — Contracts listed before 18 March 2026, fee on the fill, maker | 0.01 × C × min(P, 1 − P), rounding not stated |
| Gemini Predictions, fee on the fill, source | Gemini Predictions fee schedule — https://www.gemini.com/fees/predictions (read 2026-10-04) |
| Gemini Predictions, at settlement | none (“There are no settlement fees.”) |
| Gemini Predictions, at settlement, source | Gemini Predictions Fee Schedule — https://www.gemini.com/fees/predictions (dated 2026-03-12, read 2026-10-07) |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by Bank transfer (ACH) | free (ACH withdrawals are free) |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by Bank transfer (ACH), source | Gemini Transfer Fee Schedule — https://www.gemini.com/fees/transfer-fee-schedule (dated 2026-01-20, read 2026-10-07) |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by USD wire transfer | $25 a withdrawal ($25 a USD wire withdrawal; the receiving bank may charge its own) |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by USD wire transfer, source | Gemini Transfer Fee Schedule — https://www.gemini.com/fees/transfer-fee-schedule (dated 2026-01-20, read 2026-10-07) |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by Crypto to an external wallet | not modelled — A dynamic fee set by the network at the time and shown before the withdrawal; the schedule publishes no rate. |
| Gemini Predictions, withdrawal by Crypto to an external wallet, source | Gemini Transfer Fee Schedule — https://www.gemini.com/fees/transfer-fee-schedule (dated 2026-01-20, read 2026-10-07) |
| Gemini Predictions, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Bank transfer (ACH) | outlay $51.75, you keep $100.00 |
| Gemini Predictions, left out | Deposits and withdrawals run through the rest of the Gemini platform, on the transfer schedule, not the prediction schedule. |
| PredictIt, fee on the fill | none — PredictIt charges nothing on a fill, buying or selling |
| PredictIt, fee on the fill, source | PredictIt FAQ endpoint, What are your fees? — https://www.predictit.org/api/about/faqs (dated 2026-09-22, read 2026-10-08) |
| PredictIt, at settlement | 10% of the gain (10% of the profit on each share redeemed at $1; nothing on a losing share) |
| PredictIt, at settlement, source | PredictIt FAQ endpoint, What are your fees? — https://www.predictit.org/api/about/faqs (dated 2026-09-22, read 2026-10-08) |
| PredictIt, withdrawal by Any method, from an active account | free (No fee on standard withdrawals from active accounts, since the schedule updated on 22 September 2026) |
| PredictIt, withdrawal by Any method, from an active account, source | PredictIt FAQ endpoint, What are your fees? — https://www.predictit.org/api/about/faqs (dated 2026-09-22, read 2026-10-08) |
| PredictIt, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Any method, from an active account | outlay $50.00, you keep $95.00 |
| PredictIt, left out | From an account with no login for twelve months, a withdrawal costs 5% of the amount withdrawn, principal included, and the account pays $2 a month (terms and conditions). A credit-card deposit costs 3%. Nothing can be withdrawn until 30 days after the first deposit. |
| ProphetX, fee on the fill | none — ProphetX charges nothing on the fill of a straight trade |
| ProphetX, fee on the fill, source | ProphetX Trading Fees, version 1.2 — https://www.prophetx.co/lobby/t-c/trading-fees (dated 2026-10-01, read 2026-10-07) |
| ProphetX, at settlement | 2% of the gain (2% of net gains per market, at settlement; nothing on a losing position) |
| ProphetX, at settlement, source | ProphetX Trading Fees, version 1.2 — https://www.prophetx.co/lobby/t-c/trading-fees (dated 2026-10-01, read 2026-10-07) |
| ProphetX, withdrawal by Aeropay, debit card, paper check or wire | not modelled — The fee page names no withdrawal fee, and nor did the help-centre withdrawal article read for the ProphetX card; nothing is modelled. |
| ProphetX, withdrawal by Aeropay, debit card, paper check or wire, source | ProphetX Trading Fees, version 1.2 — https://www.prophetx.co/lobby/t-c/trading-fees (dated 2026-10-01, read 2026-10-07) |
| ProphetX, 100 contracts at 50¢, taker, won, Aeropay, debit card, paper check or wire | outlay $50.00, you keep at most $99.00, before the withdrawal cost |
| ProphetX, left out | Parlays pay a separate taker fee per dollar of cost and are not modelled. The maker volume rebate is zero below $50,000 of resting-order volume a month. |

## What it computes

One position, bought and held until the contract resolves, then withdrawn. Pick a venue, its fee
schedule where it has more than one, whether your entry order took liquidity or rested, the price
in cents, the number of contracts, which way the contract resolved and how you withdraw. You get
each leg in dollars:

- **what you put in** — the contracts at your price, plus the fee on the fill, or minus it where a
  maker is paid;
- **what is taken at settlement** — a share of the gain on the two venues that charge there;
- **what the withdrawal costs** — a share of the amount moved or a flat charge per withdrawal,
  where the venue publishes one;
- **what reaches your bank or wallet**, the net, and the net as a share of what you put in;
- **the break-even probability** — the chance of winning at which this position comes out even
  after every cost above, which is what you put in divided by what a win leaves you with.

The last figure is the one no venue page gives you. A contract priced at 50 cents implies even
odds before costs; after them, the position needs a better chance than that to be worth holding,
and how much better depends on where the venue takes its cut. Below the result is the same
position on all six venues, so a cost taken on the fill and a cost taken on the profit can be read
in one column.

The default — 100 contracts bought at 50 cents as a taker, resolved in your favour, withdrawn by
bank transfer — is the trade the [fee calculator](https://predictionmarkets.tools/calculators/prediction-market-fees) defaults
to, carried through to the bank.

## Where the numbers come from

Three legs, each from a document the venue publishes, each with its date or the day it was read,
and all printed in this page's Markdown twin beside their documents.

- **The fee on the fill** is not restated here. It is read from the same table the
  [fee calculator](https://predictionmarkets.tools/calculators/prediction-market-fees) uses, so a schedule change moves both pages
  at once: [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi), [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) by category,
  [Polymarket US](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket-us) and [Gemini Predictions](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/gemini-predictions).
  [PredictIt](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predictit) charges nothing on a fill, and [ProphetX](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/prophetx) nothing
  on the fill of a straight trade.
- **Settlement.** PredictIt takes 10% of the profit on each share redeemed at a dollar, per its
  FAQ. ProphetX takes 2% of net gains per market at settlement, per its trading-fee page, version
  1.2 of 1 October 2026. Kalshi's schedule sets no settlement fee on a yes-or-no contract, Gemini's
  says there are none, and Polymarket US pays a dollar a winning contract with a fee schedule that
  charges fills only.
- **The withdrawal.** PredictIt's FAQ, since its fee article was updated on 22 September 2026,
  charges nothing for a standard withdrawal from an active account; the 5% its terms keep for an
  inactive account is left out below. Gemini's
  transfer schedule makes ACH free and a USD wire $25. Kalshi's fee schedule makes ACH free, and
  Polymarket US documents every withdrawal method as free.

Where a document says nothing about a leg, the leg is not modelled rather than set to zero, and
the figures it would have reduced are printed as "at most". Fees on the fill keep the venue's
rounding; a share of profit is shown unrounded, because neither PredictIt nor ProphetX says how it
rounds one.

## What it leaves out

- **The legs with no published rate.** Polymarket states no charge for redeeming a winning share,
  and whether the redeem transaction costs gas depends on the wallet; its bridge then prices each
  withdrawal as a live quote, and the documentation's one worked example — a deposit, 10 USDC
  into pUSD — takes 10 dollars to 9.94. A
  crypto withdrawal from Kalshi pays its processor's fee and one from Gemini a network fee, both
  set at the time. Kalshi's fee schedule prices debit card deposits and says nothing of debit card
  withdrawals. ProphetX names no withdrawal fee at all, which is not the same claim as charging
  none.
- **Venues whose withdrawal is not theirs to price.** [Robinhood](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/robinhood-prediction-markets),
  [Webull](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/webull-prediction-markets), [ForecastEx](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/forecastex) and
  [Underdog Predict](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/underdog-predict) are reached through a brokerage, futures or linked
  fantasy account, which moves money on its own terms; [Novig](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/novig) and
  [PrizePicks Predict](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/prizepicks-predict) publish withdrawal articles that name no fee.
  Their fill fees are on the [fee calculator](https://predictionmarkets.tools/calculators/prediction-market-fees).
- **Charges that are not a rate on this position.** Kalshi's reserved right to charge 0% to 2% on
  any rail, unused today; PredictIt's 3% on a credit-card deposit, and on an account with no login
  for twelve months its $2 a month and 5% of any withdrawal, principal included; Polymarket's
  on-ramp, which charges for the stablecoin before the first trade.
- **Selling before resolution.** This page holds to the end. Closing early pays a second fill fee
  at the exit price, and on PredictIt the profit fee falls on the sale instead.
- **More than one position.** ProphetX nets gains per market, so an offsetting position in the
  same market lowers the fee; PredictIt charges each profitable share and refunds nothing on a
  losing one; Gemini's wire fee is per withdrawal, so one withdrawal of several positions pays it
  once.
- **Time.** Money in a position until resolution, and in PredictIt's 30-day hold or Polymarket US's
  clearing period after it, earns nothing while it waits — see
  [how money gets back out](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-money-gets-out) for putting a number on that.
- **A contract that resolves neither way.** A market settled at a last fair price, or under the
  alternative terms in its rules, pays something between nothing and a dollar; the outcome toggle
  has two positions.
- **Rebates, credits and caps.** Maker and taker rebate programmes paid later from a pool,
  promotional credit that cannot be withdrawn, and PredictIt's $3,500 limit on a contract, which
  caps the size this page will happily multiply.
- **Tax.** What reaches your bank is before any tax on the gain; who reports it, and on which form,
  differs by venue.

## Tools this bears on

- [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi.md) — A CFTC-designated exchange for event contracts, settled in dollars against named sources.
- [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket.md) — Self-custody event contracts on an on-chain order book, resolved by the UMA oracle.
- [Polymarket US](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket-us.md) — Polymarket's CFTC-designated US exchange — dollars, KYC, and no on-chain oracle.
- [Gemini Predictions](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/gemini-predictions.md) — A crypto exchange's own CFTC-designated venue for event contracts, paid in dollars.
- [PredictIt](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predictit.md) — Political event contracts under CFTC no-action relief, capped at $3,500 a contract.
- [ProphetX](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/prophetx.md) — A sports event exchange that is its own CFTC-registered clearinghouse, open from age 18.

## FAQ

### Why is PredictIt's break-even probability above the price I paid?

Because the cost comes off the win and not off the purchase. At 50 cents a share, 100 shares cost $50 and pay $100; PredictIt takes 10% of the $50 profit, leaving $95, and a standard withdrawal from an active account is free. Fifty dollars in for $95 back breaks even at a 52.63% chance of winning, about 2.6 points above the price. On Kalshi the same position breaks even at 51.75%, because the whole cost is the $1.75 fee on the fill.

### Why do some rows say "at most"?

Because a leg of that venue's cost is not published as a rate — Polymarket's bridge prices each withdrawal as a live quote, ProphetX names no withdrawal fee, and a crypto withdrawal from Kalshi or Gemini pays a network fee set at the time. Every leg left out is a cost, so the figure printed is the most you could keep, and the break-even probability is the least it could be.

### Do I pay a withdrawal fee when the contract resolves against me?

Not on this position, because it pays nothing and there is nothing of it to withdraw. On PredictIt a standard withdrawal from an active account has been free since the schedule updated on 22 September 2026; an account with no login for twelve months pays 5% of whatever it withdraws, principal included, so money deposited and never lost still pays it on the way out. A fee on profit, on PredictIt or ProphetX, is nothing on a losing position.

### Is this the same as the fee calculator?

No. The [prediction market fee calculator](/calculators/prediction-market-fees) prices one fill on ten venues and stops there. This page uses the same fill fees, from the same table, and adds what happens after the fill — the venues that charge at settlement rather than on the trade, and what it costs to get the money out.

## Sources

1. [Kalshi Fee Schedule for July 2026, 7.7.26 Update](https://kalshi.com/docs/kalshi-fee-schedule.pdf) — Kalshi, 2026-07-07
2. [Crypto Withdrawals](https://help.kalshi.com/en/articles/13823804-crypto-withdrawals) — Kalshi, read 2026-09-21
3. [Polymarket documentation, Fees](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/fees) — Polymarket, read 2026-09-19
4. [Polymarket documentation, bridge Quote](https://docs.polymarket.com/trading/bridge/quote) — Polymarket, read 2026-09-21
5. [Polymarket US documentation, Fee Schedule](https://docs.polymarket.us/fees) — QCX LLC (Polymarket US), 2026-10-01
6. [Polymarket US documentation, Market Settlement](https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/markets/contract-settlement) — QCX LLC (Polymarket US), read 2026-10-07
7. [Polymarket US documentation, Withdraw funds overview](https://docs.polymarket.us/learn/deposits/withdraw-funds/overview) — QCX LLC (Polymarket US), read 2026-10-07
8. [Gemini Predictions Fee Schedule](https://www.gemini.com/fees/predictions) — Gemini, 2026-03-12
9. [Gemini Transfer Fee Schedule](https://www.gemini.com/fees/transfer-fee-schedule) — Gemini, 2026-01-20
10. [FAQ endpoint, What are your fees?](https://www.predictit.org/api/about/faqs) — PredictIt, 2026-09-22
11. [Terms and Conditions (no date in the document)](https://www.predictit.org/terms-and-conditions) — PredictIt, read 2026-10-08
12. [ProphetX Trading Fees, version 1.2](https://www.prophetx.co/lobby/t-c/trading-fees) — ProphetX, 2026-10-01

*Last updated 2026-10-09. Rates re-read from the schedules on that date; corrected in place.*