# What to use instead of Trepa

Trepa's last round ran on 12 August 2026 and the app goes offline after 30 September. Where a one-minute BTC accuracy contest sends you next.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/trepa*

## The subject

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Product | Trepa |
| Status | retired |
| Stopped serving | 2026-08-12 |
| Website | https://trepa.io/ |
| Category | Prediction Market Venues |

A Solana app where you named the exact BTC price instead of picking a side, and your share of the pool scaled with how close you got — sixty-second rounds, run for one communal hour a day.

## Replacements

*Ordered by how much of the original’s job each one covers, closest first. Paid placement does not affect this order.*

1. [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless.md) — The nearest thing to a one-minute BTC round with money on it — 5- and 15-minute up-or-down markets on Base, settled in USDC against a Chainlink TWAP.
2. [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket.md) — The 5-minute BTC up-or-down market Trepa built its whole argument against, on the deepest book in the sector and with no identity check.
3. [Myriad](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/myriad.md) — An AMM quotes both sides whenever you show up, so there is no communal hour to be awake for and no pool that has to fill before you can enter.
4. [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi.md) — For a reader in the United States, where none of the above is open — crypto contracts in dollars on a CFTC-designated exchange, behind KYC.
5. [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus.md) — The only pick that scores how close you got rather than which side you took. Free, no stake, and a public record instead of a payout.
6. [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold.md) — Numeric markets you write yourself, in play money, on MIT-licensed code — the accuracy question without the pool or the hour.

## The product

Trepa asked a different question from everything around it. Instead of yes or no, you named a
number: the exact BTC price at the end of the round. Your payout was not a fixed price times a
share, it was a share of the pool, and it scaled with how close you landed.

The mechanics, from the company's own reintroduction post of 27 July 2026: each round ran one
minute — thirty seconds to place a prediction, thirty seconds to watch the live price come toward
your target or away from it. Payout was a convex accuracy score taken relative to everybody else
in the pool, distributed pro rata, and the post states you could never lose more than half your
stake. It ran on Solana, funded with USDC, in a separate app at its own domain — one communal hour
a day, 1 to 2pm UTC, because a pari-mutuel pool is only worth entering when a crowd is in it at
the same moment. The plan named in that post was more assets: SOL, HYPE, equities, commodities, FX.

The argument behind it was about information, not novelty. The same post named the thing it was
competing with — the 5-minute BTC up-or-down market, where a continuous outcome gets sliced into a
yes and a no — and called the loss discretization. If you think the price ends at 64,180, a
yes-or-no contract cannot hold that sentence.

**How it ended.** On 10 August 2026 the two founders published a shutdown post on the company's
own blog, and it is unusually specific. The last playable round was 12 August 2026, with no rounds
after it. Referral and streak rewards were to be sent to Trepa wallets on 13 August 2026. The app
stays online until 30 September 2026 so balances can be withdrawn, and after that "it will not be
reachable". Anyone who misses that date is pointed at Privy's own account portal, which works only
for accounts opened with an email address.

The post is also candid about why, which is rarer. They could not find product-market fit. The
pari-mutuel design meant you could not know your payout when you committed and could not exit a
position once entered, and they had accepted both knowingly. Choosing a number to decimal
precision asked more of a person than choosing a side. The one-hour window concentrated the crowd
the mechanism needed, but required users to build their day around it, and retention fell under
that ask — while every plan to scale, more assets and more windows, diluted the very concurrency
the mechanism ran on. They also say geographic restrictions removed a large share of the
addressable audience before they started. Which restrictions, and where, they do not say, and we
could not establish it from anything they published.

## What to use instead

Nothing replaces Trepa whole, and the reason is structural rather than commercial: no venue in
this catalogue pays you for proximity to a number. They all pay you for being on the right side of
one. Split what you were there for.

**If you were there for a fast market on the BTC price**, [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless) is the
closest. Its listing is dominated by short-cadence crypto — BTC and ETH up-or-down over 5 minutes,
15 minutes and an hour — collateralised in USDC on Base, traded on an order book at 1.5 percent
taker and zero maker, resolved automatically against a Chainlink TWAP with no identity check.
[Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) runs the 5-minute market Trepa named, on a far deeper book, at
1.75 percent on crypto. Both are yes-or-no, which is exactly the loss Trepa existed to argue
about — but both are open now, at any hour, with a price on the screen.

**If what you actually valued was the hour and the contest**, that part is gone and the nearest
substitute is a venue that always has a quote. [Myriad](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/myriad) prices with an AMM across
four chains at 0.5 percent taker and settles in stablecoins, so there is no pool to fill and
nobody to wait for. You lose the thing that made the 1pm hour fun and you gain the ability to
arrive at 3am.

**If you were there to be measured**, stop looking at venues. [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) is
built on the log score and publishes Baseline and Peer scores against a public track record;
nobody takes a position and nothing pays out, which is the point. [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold) has
a numeric market type among binary, multiple choice, polls and bounties, runs on play money and
MIT-licensed code, and lets you write the question at the precision you want rather than waiting
for someone to list it.

**If you are in the United States**, Limitless, Polymarket and Myriad all bar you by their own
terms. [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi) lists crypto contracts alongside politics, macro and sports,
settles in dollars on a CFTC-designated exchange at 1.75 percent taker, and requires identity
verification — a different product legally and practically, and the available one.

## What you give up

**Being paid for precision.** This is the whole loss and it is worth stating plainly. On every
replacement here, a forecast of 64,180 and a forecast of 67,000 are the same trade if the market
is "above 64,000" and both are right. Trepa was the only place where the difference between them
was money. Metaculus keeps the distinction and removes the money; Limitless keeps the money and
removes the distinction. Nothing in this catalogue keeps both.

**A bounded downside.** Trepa's own post says you could never lose more than half your stake. On
an order-book venue a contract you bought at 62 cents and that resolves the wrong way is worth
zero, and on an AMM the same is true — the full stake is the downside, every round. A reader
treating a Limitless position as "like a Trepa round" is sizing it wrong by a factor of two.

**A game you could finish.** A round lasted sixty seconds and ended. A position in a 15-minute
up-or-down market also ends, but a position in anything longer is a thing you now carry, watch and
think about, and the catalogue's venues are mostly built for carrying. Some people liked Trepa
precisely because there was nothing to hold.

**The crowd being there at the same time.** A thousand people predicting in the same minute is
what made a pari-mutuel pool pay. It is also what killed the product, by the founders' own
account. What replaces it is liquidity that does not care whether you showed up — which is more
useful and much less of an occasion.

## Migration notes

**Withdraw before 30 September 2026, and do it from inside the app.** The instruction in Trepa's
own post is three steps: open the app, go to your wallet, send the balance to an address you
control. There is no sweep, no automatic return and no stated grace period.

**Your Trepa wallet was an embedded wallet, not one you made.** That is why the fallback in the
shutdown post is Privy's account portal rather than a seed phrase, and why it is conditional on
having signed up with an email address. If you used a different sign-in method, the app itself is
the only route and the date is hard.

**The balance includes the rewards paid on 13 August.** Referral and streak rewards landed in the
Trepa wallet, not in yours. Somebody who stopped playing after the final round on 12 August and
never reopened the app has a balance sitting there that they have no reason to expect.

**USDC on Solana is not USDC on Base or Polygon.** Every money pick here lives somewhere else:
Limitless on Base, Polymarket and its clients on Polygon, Myriad across BNB Chain, Abstract, Linea
and Celo, Kalshi in dollars in a bank. Moving the balance out of Trepa is one transaction; moving
it to the chain your next venue uses is a bridge, a fee and a second chance to send money to an
address that cannot return it. Withdraw first to a wallet you control, then bridge deliberately.

**Do not carry the position size across.** Half-stake downside was a property of one mechanism and
it does not travel. Whatever you were putting into a round, size the first ten trades somewhere
else as if the whole amount can go to zero, because it can.

## FAQ

### How long do I have to withdraw?

Until 30 September 2026. Trepa's own shutdown post says the app stays online until then so you can withdraw, and that after that it will not be reachable. Open the app, go to the wallet and send the balance to an address you control.

### What if I miss the deadline?

The shutdown post says you can recover access through Privy's own account portal, and that this only works if you signed up to Trepa with an email address. If you signed up another way, the post offers no second route, so treat 30 September as final.

### Did I get my referral and streak rewards?

Trepa said they would be sent to your Trepa wallet on 13 August 2026, the day after the last playable round. That is inside the app, not in your own wallet, so it is part of the balance you still have to withdraw before the deadline.

### Is anything else running Trepa's mechanism?

Not that we can find. Pari-mutuel scoring on a continuous number is not what any venue in this catalogue does — they quote a side. The closest surviving pieces are the short-cadence crypto contracts on Limitless and Polymarket for the money, and the proper scoring on Metaculus for the accuracy.