# What to use instead of Replication Markets

Replication Markets closed its last market on 20 November 2020 and named its last prize winners in 2022. Where to forecast research results now.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/replication-markets*

## The subject

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Product | Replication Markets |
| Status | retired |
| Stopped serving | 2020-11-20 |
| Website | https://www.replicationmarkets.com/ |
| Category | Forecasting Platforms |

A DARPA-funded research project where anyone could forecast whether published social-science findings would replicate, first in a survey and then in a market, for cash prizes.

## Replacements

*Ordered by how much of the original’s job each one covers, closest first. Paid placement does not affect this order.*

1. [Social Science Prediction Platform](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/social-science-prediction-platform.md) — The platform Replication Markets pointed to on its own closing page. You forecast what a social-science study will find and are scored against the result.
2. [Hypermind](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/hypermind.md) — The mechanism without the subject. A play-money order book with real prizes split by performance, on questions Hypermind writes, science among them.
3. [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus.md) — Public forecasting on a proper score, with a track record anyone can read and prize pools on tournaments. Science questions, but not replication claims.
4. [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold.md) — The one place you can ask whether a particular paper will replicate and get a market by morning, in play money, resolved by whoever asked.

## The product

Replication Markets asked a question most forecasting sites never touch: will a finding that has
already been published hold up when somebody runs the study again? It was a research project
inside DARPA's SCORE programme — Systematizing Confidence in Open Research and Evidence — and
its forecasts were data, collected to help train machine models that score the reliability of
research.

It ran in rounds. Each round drew claims from behavioural and social-science journals published
between 2009 and 2018. For one week forecasters filled in a survey, giving their own estimate of
each claim's chance of replicating; then a market opened on the same claims, and the crowd moved
a shared probability with its trades. The project wanted both from the same people, so it could
compare the survey with the market. The survey week alone carried $4,800 in prizes a round, paid
in batches of nine or ten claims — $80 to the top forecaster, $40 to the second, $20 each to the
third and fourth. The home page promised at least $4,000 in payouts each month and counted over
$100,000 awarded through 2020.

The schedule page shows rounds 6 to 11 running through 2020. Round 11, on COVID-19 claims,
closed its market on 28 September. A separate market on 400 COVID-19 preprints followed, funded
in part by the Fetzer Franklin Fund on the SCORE platform. For each preprint it asked four
questions: where the paper would rank by citations a year on, and whether within a year it would
be published in a journal with an impact factor of 10 or more, published below that, or not
published at all. It carried $14,520 in prizes.

**How it ended, with dates.** The preprint market's surveys ran from 28 October to 10 November
2020 and its market from 11 November to 20 November 2020 at 12:00 UTC; afterwards its page said
data collection was complete. The home page then said the project "does not plan to run any
forecasts in 2021" and would resolve outstanding claims, pay prizes and analyse the results. On 16
November 2021 it announced 121 resolutions for the SCORE markets — 79 regular replications, 30
COVID-19 replications and 12 meta-claims — and contacted 258 winners to claim $142,623; the claim
window has since closed. Preprint winners were announced on 3 February 2022. The home page's last
word on the project is "RM is done". On 25 October 2026 the domain answered with an HTTP 522 error.

This page records 20 November 2020 as the end, because that is the last moment anyone could
forecast on it.

## What to use instead

It was three things at once: a subject (whether social science holds up), a mechanism (a market
with cash for accuracy), and a score that followed you. No product here does all three, so pick
by the one you came for.

**If you came for the subject**, go to the [Social Science Prediction
Platform](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/social-science-prediction-platform), the one Replication Markets named itself.
The object is close but not the same. There you forecast what a study will find before its results
are reported, and you are ranked by your error against the estimate the researchers publish. That
is a prior on a new result, not a forecast of whether an old result survives a second run. Anyone 18
or over can forecast free; the paid panel is limited to graduate students, faculty and researchers.

**If you came for the market with prizes**, [Hypermind](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/hypermind) is the same shape. You
trade a play currency on an order book, and a fixed prize per contest is split among the
forecasters who finished with a positive performance, paid in Amazon gift certificates. The
questions are Hypermind's — politics, economics, business, science and sports — and none of them
is a replication claim.

**If you came for a public score**, [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) scores every forecast on a proper
rule and keeps a track record on your profile that a stranger can read. Money arrives only through
tournaments, each with its own prize pool and rules. Its questions include science, but it does
not run replications, so a claim resolves when the source named in its criteria reports.

**If you have one paper in mind**, [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold) lets anyone open a question and
resolve it. You can have a market on a specific replication by tomorrow. The price is play money
and the resolution is whoever opened it, so the number is only as good as the people who turn up.

## What you give up

**Cash for being right about replication, open to anybody.** The SCORE markets offered $142,623
in prizes to 258 winners, with no credential asked for. The nearest subject match pays only its
researcher panel, and the nearest mechanism match pays in gift certificates on questions about
something else.

**Resolution by a second run of the study.** A Replication Markets claim was settled when
somebody actually tried to reproduce the finding. The Social Science Prediction Platform scores
you against the study's own reported estimate, which can take years, and some studies never report.
Metaculus settles on whatever source the question names. Nothing here pays you for predicting
the outcome of a replication that someone has been funded to run.

**The survey beside the market.** Replication Markets asked the same crowd the same question twice,
once alone and once through prices, so the two could be compared. Every pick here does one or
the other.

## Migration notes

**Nothing carries over.** Your Replication Markets history does not become a score anywhere else,
and every pick starts you at zero. [What a track record is worth off the
venue](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-track-record-is-worth-off-venue) is the honest version of how much that
history can still do for you.

**The archived pages are the only record left.** The domain was not answering on 25 October 2026.
Copies of the schedule, the rules and the resolution posts are in the Internet Archive; there
is no account to log into and no export to request.

**Scoring is not the same unit.** A market price and a survey estimate on Replication Markets, a
ranked error on the Social Science Prediction Platform, and a log score on Metaculus are three
different numbers. [What a forecasting score measures](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-forecasting-score-measures)
explains why a good number on one does not translate to the next.

## FAQ

### When exactly did Replication Markets shut down?

Its last market closed on 20 November 2020 at 12:00 UTC. That was the COVID-19 preprint market, whose own page gave that closing time and later said data collection was complete. The project's home page then said it did not plan to run any forecasts in 2021 and would only resolve claims, pay prizes and analyse results.

### Can I still claim a prize?

No. The home page said the project had contacted the 258 winners of its SCORE replication markets to claim 142,623 dollars in prizes and that this had closed. Winners of the COVID-19 preprint market were announced on 3 February 2022 and notified by email. On 25 October 2026 the domain did not load.

### Where did the research go?

The closing page said the research continues at the Science Prediction Markets Project, and recommended BITSS's Social Science Prediction Platform, which this catalogue lists. We could not establish whether the Science Prediction Markets Project takes forecasts from the public, so it is not a pick here.

### Did it cost anything to take part?

No. The COVID-19 site stated there was no cost to participate, and the money ran one way, from the project to the forecasters who did best. The survey rounds alone carried 4,800 dollars in prizes each.