# What to use instead of Intrade

Intrade stopped trading on 10 March 2013 and froze members' balances. Where its election and current-events contracts trade now, and what did not survive it.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/intrade*

## The subject

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Product | Intrade |
| Status | retired |
| Stopped serving | 2013-03-10 |
| Website | https://www.intrade.com/ |
| Category | Prediction Market Venues |

A Dublin-based real-money exchange where members bought and sold yes-or-no contracts on elections, economics and the news, and the price was read as a probability.

## Replacements

*Ordered by how much of the original’s job each one covers, closest first. Paid placement does not affect this order.*

1. [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi.md) — Dollar contracts on politics, economics and the news on an order book, on the kind of CFTC-registered exchange the CFTC said in 2012 they need. Not Ireland.
2. [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket.md) — The broad question list on an order book for people outside the US, from your own wallet and settled in crypto. It restricts 39 countries; Ireland is one.
3. [PredictIt](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predictit.md) — The US political half only, for US persons, in dollars under CFTC no-action relief, with a $3,500 cap per contract and 10 percent taken from each profit.

## The product

Intrade was an exchange in Dublin, run by Intrade the Prediction Market Limited, where members
bought and sold contracts on whether something would happen and the price was read as the crowd's
probability that it would. Its home page in October 2012 called it "the world's leading prediction
market", put the platform's start at 2001, and led with the US election: its exchange news that
week announced a market on whether Todd Akin would withdraw from the Senate race in Missouri and
clarified the rules of the markets on the combination of president and Congress after the 2012
elections. Around the markets sat what a trading venue carries — a forum, an API, a mobile
interface, a practice mode, published reports and a data section aimed at academics — and a flat
$4.99 a month offered as "effective free" active trading.

**How it ended, with dates.** On 26 November 2012 the CFTC charged Intrade and Trade Exchange
Network Limited with offering commodity options to US customers off-exchange, in breach of its ban
on such trading. By March 2013 the site's footer said that Intrade did not permit customers in the
United States to use its trading service.

On 10 March 2013 the board posted a notice that, "due to circumstances recently discovered", it
must "immediately cease trading activity". It said the circumstances "may include financial
irregularities" which Irish law obliged the directors to act on, and listed the three things it had
done: stopped trading, settled every open position and calculated each member's settled balance,
and stopped all banking transactions. Contracts were closed at fair market value as of the close of
business that day; members could log in and see their balances, and could not be paid them until
the investigations concluded. A second notice on 24 March said the company's bank accounts remained
frozen and that the investigations should conclude by 5 April.

On 5 April the company reported a cash shortfall of about $700,000 between the money it held and
members' balances, and asked members with more than $1,000 to agree to a "forbearance"
arrangement so that it could stay solvent. On 30 April it said enough had agreed. Withdrawals of
the funds not covered by that arrangement reopened by bank wire in May 2013 — for non-US accounts
from 8 May, for US accounts from 20 May.

Trading never came back. On 24 June 2014 the chief executive, Ron Bernstein, wrote that it
"appears very unlikely now that Intrade will resume trading services in the way it had operated
previously", and set the clock for the money: request a full withdrawal, with anti-money-laundering
identification, by 31 July 2014 — a date later changed to 15 August in the same notice — or pay a
$240 administration fee on whatever was left after 31 July, and every remaining account would be
liquidated by 31 December 2014.

This page records 10 March 2013 as the end, because that is the date the company's own notices of
10 March 2013 and 24 June 2014 both give for the last trade.

## What to use instead

Nothing replaces it whole, because Intrade was one book that, until late 2012, members inside and
outside the US traded together. That book has since split by jurisdiction, so the first question
is where you are.

**If you are in the US and traded elections, the economy and the news**, [Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi)
is the nearest thing in shape: an order book, dollar settlement, and categories that run from
politics and macro data to culture and business. It is a CFTC-designated contract market — the
kind of registered exchange that, the CFTC said when it sued Intrade in 2012, contracts like these
must be listed on to be offered to US customers. It also takes members
from many countries, but its member agreement restricts 55 jurisdictions, and Ireland — where
Intrade was — is one of them, as are the United Kingdom, France and Italy.

**If you are outside the US**, [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) is the broad question list on an
order book that Intrade was in its last months, closed to the US as Intrade was by then. Its own
help page restricts 39 countries by where you are physically standing, not where you live, and
fully blocks Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, France and Italy among them, so check that list
before anything else. The working
differences are custody and money. You hold the funds in your own wallet rather than in an
account a board can freeze, and you settle in crypto rather than in dollars. Outcomes are decided by
the UMA oracle, not by the operator. [Kalshi against Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/kalshi-vs-polymarket)
sets the two side by side.

**If what you traded was US politics and nothing else**, [PredictIt](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/predictit) is the
market that is built for it: political contracts in dollars, run by a non-profit under CFTC
no-action relief, open only to US persons — US citizens wherever they live, and resident aliens.
The cap of $3,500 per contract and the 10 percent it
takes from each profit make it a different instrument for anyone who traded size on Intrade.

## What you give up

**One book for the whole world.** An American and a European could once take opposite sides of
the same Intrade contract. Today the US and international books are separate even under one brand:
Polymarket runs [two exchanges with no shared order book](https://predictionmarkets.tools/compare/polymarket-vs-polymarket-us),
Kalshi excludes 55 jurisdictions, and PredictIt takes US persons only. A price on any one of them is
the price of its own members, not of everybody who has a view.

**Any venue at all, if you are in Ireland or much of western Europe.** Intrade was an Irish
company that took members there. Ireland, the United Kingdom, France and Italy are on Kalshi's
restricted list and on Polymarket's fully blocked list, and PredictIt takes only US persons, so
for a reader in Dublin who is not a US citizen none of the three picks will open a position. [Why a venue is unavailable
where you are](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/why-a-venue-is-unavailable-where-you-are) explains why the lists move.

**The price history.** In 2012 the site's footer linked to reports, statistics and a data section
for academics. Those went with the exchange, and the domain today serves no data. If your work
cites Intrade prices, the series is whatever you, or the paper you read, downloaded before March
2013.

## Migration notes

**There is nothing to carry across.** Every open position was settled on 10 March 2013 at the
company's fair-value price, so there is no contract to move and no market to finish trading. The
deadline for withdrawal requests was 15 August 2014. We found no notice from the company after the one of
24 June 2014 saying what became of balances nobody claimed.

**Every replacement charges by the trade, not by the month.** Intrade advertised a flat $4.99 a
month in October 2012. Kalshi and Polymarket charge takers a fee on each trade, and PredictIt takes
a share of each profit.
[What a trade actually costs](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-a-trade-actually-costs) prices those per contract.

**Identity checks are not new, but the documents are different.** Intrade's 2014 notice says it had
required anti-money-laundering identification since July 2012. Kalshi and PredictIt verify identity
at signup under US rules; Polymarket asks for none at signup, and in exchange it is not available to US
persons at all. [What you have to prove to trade](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/what-you-have-to-prove-to-trade) has each
venue's list.

**Where the money sits is the part of the ending that can happen again.** From 10 March to May
2013 Intrade's members could see settled balances and not withdraw them, and those who signed the
forbearance arrangement could then withdraw only the part it did not cover. Where the money sits while a
position is open, and who can stop it leaving, is set out in [how money gets
out](https://predictionmarkets.tools/guides/how-money-gets-out).

## FAQ

### When exactly did Intrade shut down?

On 10 March 2013. The notice its board of directors posted on intrade.com that day said trading ceased immediately and every open contract was closed and settled at fair market value as of the close of business on 10 March 2013. The chief executive's notice of 24 June 2014 restates the same date.

### Can I still get money out of an Intrade account?

Not through Intrade. Withdrawals reopened in May 2013, and its notice of 24 June 2014 told members to request a full withdrawal by 15 August 2014 (first 31 July), charged a 240 dollar administration fee on balances left after 31 July 2014, and said every remaining account would be liquidated by 31 December 2014. Its one later notice, of 1 November 2014, says nothing about balances.

### Why could Americans not use it at the end?

On 26 November 2012 the CFTC charged Intrade the Prediction Market Limited and Trade Exchange Network Limited with offering off-exchange commodity options to US customers. By March 2013 the site's footer stated that Intrade did not permit customers in the United States to use its trading service.

### Is intrade.com the same company today?

Nothing on it says so. On 25 October 2026 the domain served a short page with a history section and a support address, copyright 2025, with no login, no markets and no mention of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited.