# What to use instead of Insight Prediction

The site is up, the terms still apply and the copyright says 2026 — but Insight Prediction has listed no markets since January. Where a non-US trader goes.

*https://predictionmarkets.tools/alternatives/insight-prediction*

## The subject

| Field | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Product | Insight Prediction |
| Status | retired |
| Stopped serving | 2026-01-15 |
| Website | https://insightprediction.com/ |
| Category | Prediction Market Venues |

A small crypto-funded event market run by academics, closed to the United States, where the operator's own bot was often the one quoting both sides.

## Replacements

*Ordered by how much of the original’s job each one covers, closest first. Paid placement does not affect this order.*

1. [Futuur](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/futuur.md) — The same shape — a house market maker quoting both sides and an editorial team resolving against named sources — with stablecoins or play money and no KYC.
2. [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket.md) — The deep book the thin one was priced against. Self-custody on Polygon for non-US traders, UMA resolution instead of an operator's final word.
3. [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless.md) — An order book rather than a house quote, fully collateralised in USDC on Base, 1.5 percent taker and no identity check. Its terms bar the US the same way.
4. [Myriad](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/myriad.md) — Multi-chain markets priced by an AMM and resolved by the team within 48 hours, settled in stablecoins or season points, 0.5 percent taker and no KYC.

## The product

Insight Prediction described itself as an information markets platform developed by academics. In
practice it was a small, crypto-funded event market for people outside the United States, with
categories for US politics, sports, world politics, current events, economics, science and crypto.
You deposited crypto or stablecoins, the operator converted them to dollar balances at no stated
fee, and you traded contracts that paid a dollar if they came true.

Two things about it were unusual and both are in the terms, read on 19 September 2026. The first is
who quoted the prices: on markets where the operator's own bot was the market maker, including
sports, the operator reserved the right to unwind trades where that bot posted odds after an event
had already begun, posted incorrect odds or plainly malfunctioned, and warned that buying
mispriced shares after the fact could get funds frozen. The second is who decided outcomes: users
agreed to treat resolution decisions as final and waived the right to sue over how those decisions
were made. The venue was the counterparty, the pricing engine and the judge.

The jurisdiction rules were explicit. No corporate accounts, one account per person and one per
household or IP address, no residents of Afghanistan, Cuba, the Democratic Republic of Congo,
Guinea-Bissau, Iran, Iraq, Libya, the Marshall Islands, North Korea, the Russian Federation,
Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Crimea and Sevastopol, Yemen or Zimbabwe — and no trading from within the
United States at all.

**How it went quiet.** Nothing was announced; the listing simply emptied. In the Internet Archive's
snapshot of 4 April 2025 the home page carried four markets across its two shelves — G7 attendance,
a nuclear-detonation question, a Ukraine-war question and whether 2025 would be the hottest year on
record. By 4 August 2025 there were two, the hottest-year market quoted at 4 percent yes against
99 percent no. By 1 January 2026 there was one, the hottest-year market, with a resolution date of
15 January 2026. The snapshot of 13 February 2026 shows none, and so does every snapshot after it —
2 March, 20 April and 14 May 2026.

That is still true today. On 19 September 2026 the home page returned no markets to either shelf,
the markets page said there were none to display, the leaderboards page rendered with no rows and
the recent-trades page rendered its two headings over nothing. The footer's copyright reads 2026
and the terms are unchanged. This page records the end date as 15 January 2026 — the resolution
date of the last market the site ever listed — because the operator has published nothing better,
and we would rather name the date we can defend than the day a page happened to be checked.

**Where the brand went.** Into a different business. The site's own menu and footer now lead to
Poly Trader Pro, a desktop application for trading on Polymarket with faster order entry, fill and
price alerts and wallet switching — the venue turned into a trading client for somebody else's
venue. Its instructions page carries the date `5/10/2025` in its own text, in a format that does
not say whether it means May or October, and notes that the program is unregistered on macOS.

## What to use instead

The honest answer depends on which half of it you were there for, because nothing replaces both.

**If you were there because a price was always there**, you want a house market maker, not an
order book. [Futuur](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/futuur) is the closest thing in the catalogue: an LS-LMSR market maker
quotes both sides, an editorial team resolves each market against the public source named in its
rules and voids what cannot be resolved fairly, and every question runs twice — in play money and
in USDC or USDT. [Myriad](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/myriad) is the same property from an AMM, on BNB Chain, Abstract,
Linea and Celo, at 0.5 percent taker. Both keep the thing an order book cannot promise, which is a
price when nobody else is around.

**If you were there because you were outside the United States and wanted the real question set**,
go where the liquidity is. [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) is self-custody on Polygon for non-US
traders, resolves through the UMA optimistic oracle rather than an operator's judgement, and lists
in a day what Insight listed in a year. [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless) is a central limit order book
on Base with YES and NO shares fully collateralised in USDC, 1.5 percent taker and zero maker, no
identity check, and terms that bar US traders exactly as Insight's did.

**If you were there because the questions were odd and specific** — a G7 attendance market with
505 dollars of volume is not a market any exchange would bother listing — the replacement is not a
venue with money in it. [Manifold](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/manifold) lets you write that question yourself and have
it live in a minute, in play money, and [Metaculus](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/metaculus) will score the same kind of
question properly without anybody taking a position at all.

**If you are in the United States**, none of the four applies and never did.
[Kalshi](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/kalshi) and the US platform of Polymarket are CFTC-designated exchanges with
identity checks — a different product, legally and practically, and the only one available to you.

## What you give up

**A quoted price in a market with nobody in it.** This is the real loss and it is easy to
undersell. The bot made a two-sided market on questions that would sit untouched on an order book
for weeks; at 4 percent against 99 percent the spread was atrocious, but you could always get out.
On [Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless) or [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) a thin market means no fill at
any price, which is a different kind of stuck. Only the AMM and market-maker venues keep this, and
they charge for it in the spread.

**A venue that would list a question worth 500 dollars.** Insight's catalogue was small because
somebody was writing questions by hand for an audience of a few hundred. A designated exchange
will not list that question, an on-chain book will not attract anyone to it, and the one place it
survives is play money. You are choosing between a question you care about with no money on it and
a question you care less about with a real market in it.

**Dollar balances without a wallet.** Deposits were converted to dollars inside the platform, so
you never held a position denominated in a token whose price moved under you and you never managed
a key. Three of the four picks hand you exactly that job — a wallet, gas, a stablecoin and the
custody of both. That is more control and strictly more work, and it is also a different tax
conversation in most countries.

**Someone who could undo an obvious mistake.** The same clause that let the operator unwind trades
against its malfunctioning bot also let it unwind a fat-fingered trade of yours if you wrote in
promptly. On-chain venues have no such counter. A fill is final, the oracle is the only appeal, and
nobody is reading your email about the price you meant to type.

## Migration notes

**Do not deposit to find out whether withdrawals work.** There is no closure notice, no statement
about balances and nobody has answered the question in public. The sign-in page still loads and the
terms still disclaim liability for loss of data or profit and for any inability to use the site.
If you have a balance there, the support address in the terms is the only route, and a written
record of what you are owed is worth making now.

**The bot-error clause and the resolution waiver both disappear, in both directions.** You can no
longer have a trade unwound because the house's quote was wrong; you also cannot appeal to anybody
when you are the one who was wrong. On [Polymarket](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polymarket) the substitute is a bonded
UMA proposal with a challenge window and escalation to a token-holder vote; on
[Limitless](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/limitless) most markets resolve automatically against Pyth or a Chainlink TWAP
and only custom markets go to the team. Read which one you are trading before you need it.

**KYC is not the step that changes; custody is.** Insight asked for no identity documents, and
Futuur, Limitless and Myriad do not either. What changes is that your funds now sit in a wallet you
control on a chain you have to fund for gas, and a lost key is a lost balance with nobody to mail.
Fund a fresh wallet with what you intend to trade and nothing else.

**If you follow the brand to Poly Trader Pro, read the setup page twice.** Its own instructions ask
you to enter a wallet's private key into the application, or to export your Polymarket private key
by magic link and paste that in. A private key handed to a third-party desktop program is a key
that program can use without you. If you decide the speed is worth it, give it a wallet funded with
a trading float you could afford to lose entirely, never your main one — and note that the
catalogue already holds cross-venue clients like [Polyrama](https://predictionmarkets.tools/tools/polyrama) that sit behind a
token rather than a key.

## FAQ

### Is Insight Prediction actually closed?

It has published no closure notice, and on 19 September 2026 the site, the sign-in page and the terms were all still live. It has also listed no tradable market on any page we checked, and none in any Wayback snapshot since 13 February 2026. A venue with no markets is not a venue, whatever its front page says.

### Can I still withdraw a balance?

We could not test this without an account, and there is no published statement about balances or withdrawals. The sign-in page still loads, and the only stated contact route is the support address in the terms. Treat a balance there as uncertain rather than safe, and do not deposit to find out.

### Was it open to people in the United States?

No. The terms state plainly that trading from within the United States is not allowed, alongside a blocked list of jurisdictions and a refusal of corporate accounts. A US reader who was trading there was outside those terms, and Kalshi or the US platform of Polymarket is the regulated answer.

### What is Poly Trader Pro?

A desktop application, promoted from Insight Prediction's own menu, for trading on Polymarket faster than through its website. Its setup instructions ask you to enter a wallet private key, or to export one from Polymarket by magic link, into a third-party program. That is a serious thing to do and not one to do casually.